Let’s face it, the Marlins offense has been pretty bad this season. They're 21st in home runs hit, 22nd in team batting average and 24th in runs scored this season.
If they're going to excel on offense though, it'll be against a guy like the Reds' Hunter Greene who has allowed the second most home runs of any pitcher in the MLB at 23. He's actually been better recently at allowing home runs, giving up only one in his last three starts but he still gave up seven earned runs in total.
His last start came against these same Marlins in which he went 6.1 innings and allowed two earned runs. In that game though he allowed a personal season high of 16 fly balls to 28 batters faced so we know the Marlins can at least get a good handle on his pitch location.
All of this is why we're going with Jesus Aguilar to crush a home run out in Miami as he hits .266 at home compared to .221 on the road. He's hit .250 with a home run against the Reds already this season.