Today’s MLB Hitter Prop Picks For July 27
Andy Lang provides his MLB hitter prop picks and predictions for Thursday, July 27 with odds provided by DraftKings. Get his best MLB hitter player prop picks before first pitch!
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Hitter Prop Prediction #1: Dylan Carlson Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105) DK
St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Dylan Carlson has struggled throughout the 2023 campaign with a .234 batting average and only five home runs & 24 RBI across 225 plate appearances. Carlson has fallen short of recording 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI in 10 of his last 12 games as well as 40 of 66 games on the season for a 61% success rate on the under.
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele is actually enjoying his 2023 season with a 10-3 record, 2.95 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 96 strikeouts across 103.2 innings of work. Steele has dominated Carlson over the past few seasons, holding him to 0-10 with five strikeouts. This includes a 10-4 Cubs victory on May 10th where Carlson went 0-4 out of the five-hole.
Carlson has now dipped down to 6th or 7th in the St. Louis lineup with Brendan Donovan leading and his at-bats could be further limited considering the Cardinals are playing at home. RBI and run scoring opportunities will be few and far between in an already brutal matchup for Carlson on Thursday night. Considering his struggles against Steele and in 2023 I’m surprised & excited to get +105 odds on his under 1.5 HRR.
Hitter Prop Prediction #2: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-150) DK
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is only batting .216 in 2023 but has staggering power numbers with an .812 OPS, 28 home runs and 68 RBI across 380 plate appearances. Alonso has heated up recently and cleared 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI in 4 of his last 6 games including a two-home run, five RBI performance at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday.
Now enter Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray, who Alonso is 3-9 against with a home run and double. Gray is 7-8 with a 3.45 ERA and 98 strikeouts across 112.1 innings pitched during the 2023 campaign but has struggled with the long ball throughout his career. Gray has allowed 72 home runs across 331.2 innings of work in his career for an average of 1.96 home runs per nine innings.
The temps are in the 90’s with 10-15 mph winds blowing out at Citi Field tonight, making for ideal home run conditions. The Polar Bear has 74 hits in 2023 and 28 have been dingers and the matchup and conditions are both in his favor. Let’s make the play over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI but considering the -150 juice lets sprinkle a quarter unit on the +310 home run line to potentially increase our profits on a blast.
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