- What does history tell us about betting the over on double-digit NFL win totals?
- Evan Abrams studied the 176 teams to have a double-digit regular-season win total in the Wild-Card era (since 1990) to find out.
Welcome to year two of the 17-game schedule in the NFL! Last year the league ended the 43-year history of the 16-game schedule and added an extra game. One of the biggest impacts of the rule? Win totals.
Since 1990, there have been about 5.5 teams with double-digit win totals per season. In the first year of a 17-game schedule, eight teams were listed with a double-digit win total.
This season, there are also eight teams listed with a double-digit win total:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11.5): In his career, Tom Brady-led teams are 16-3-2 to the over on their preseason win total (14-3-2 with the Patriots and 2-0 with the Bucs).
- Buffalo Bills (11.5): The Bills went under their win total for the first time since 2016 last year (after four straight overs between 2017-20).
- Los Angeles Rams (10.5): The Rams have eclipsed their win total in consecutive seasons. They haven’t gone over their preseason win total in three consecutive seasons in the Wild-Card era (since 1990).
- Los Angeles Chargers (10.5): The Chargers win total was set at 9.5 wins last season. In Week 18 against the Raiders, L.A. had nine wins, and you know the rest. Entering 2022, the Chargers have gone under their win total in three straight seasons.
- Kansas City Chiefs (10.5): The Chiefs went under their win total for the first time in eight years last year, a streak from 2013-20.
- Green Bay Packers (10.5): In fourteen seasons with Aaron Rodgers as their starting QB, the Packers are an even 7-7 on their win total over. Though recently, the Packers have gone over in three straight seasons.
- Denver Broncos (10.5): The Broncos have a win total listed at 10.5 this year, their first double-digit win total since 2015, which was also the last season Denver went over its win total. The under is 5-0-1 on the Broncos win total since 2016.
- Dallas Cowboys (10.5): The Cowboys have a double-digit win total for just the second time since 2010… and the results haven’t been pretty.
Cowboys with Double-Digit Win Total – Since last Super Bowl Win (1995):