The 2023 NBA Finals will begin on Thursday, when the Denver Nuggets welcome the Miami Heat to town for Game 1. Who will set the tone? Read on for our Heat vs. Nuggets prediction based on the best NBA odds.
Fresh off a seven-game battle in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat are headed to the mountains to face a Denver Nuggets squad that has had over a week off. Nikola Jokic and Co. swept the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, and have been patiently waiting ever since to begin their first NBA Finals series in franchise history.
Thursday's Game 1 is nearly here. Denver is a clear favorite via our best sports betting apps to start the series off on the right foot. But Miami has surprised us every step of the way during this playoff run, which includes winning Game 1 in each of its previous three series.
Her e is our best Heat vs. Nuggets prediction (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. Nuggets prediction
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Whenever you see a plus-sign in front of Jokic's odds to record a triple-double, you have to at least consider it. Such is life when talking about the two-time MVP who has established himself as the best player in the NBA during this postseason run. He's now a heavy favorite by the NBA Finals MVP odds.
Jokic was named the Western Conference Finals MVP, averaging 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 11.8 assists per game. He finished with a triple-double in three of the four games against the Los Angeles Lakers. And the scary part is, the Lakers were actually better equipped to defend Jokic than the Heat are.
This postseason, Jokic is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per contest for the Nuggets. He notched a triple-double in eight of his 15 postseason games, including five of his last six outings. Our Jon Metler is eyeing Jokic to have the highest-scoring single-game performance of the series in his NBA Finals predictions.
Betting on a triple-double performance by Jokic mostly comes down to assists. He has recorded double-digit rebounds in 12 of the 15 postseason games, but cracked double-digit assists in nine different outings. For what it is worth, the best sportsbooks have set his assists prop at 9.5 (Over juiced around -145) or 10.5 (with the Under juiced around -145) ahead of Game 1.
We are comfortable betting on Jokic to get there by taking his triple-double prop instead with our NBA best bets for Game 1. According to NBA.com, Jokic ranks second this postseason with an average of 16.1 potential assists per game. That number climbed up to an average of 19.5 during the Western Conference Finals.
In our Nuggets NBA Finals betting preview, we said we wanted to find ways to bet on Jokic throughout the NBA Finals as he is the favorite to win the MVP award. Taking advantage of this plus-money prop in Game 1 seems like a strong start.
Heat vs. Nuggets best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triple-double | Triple-double | Triple-double | Triple-double | Triple-double |
| +100 | +100 | +105 | -117 | -115 |
Our best sports betting sites are showing plenty of respect to Jokic by listing his odds to record a triple-double between +105 and -117. We will take the best deal at BetMGM, but this prop is playable at anything +100 or better. You can even use BetMGM's $25 bonus bet on this prop if you place this bet on May 31.
For those looking for a little extra profit, FanDuel has a market for Jokic to record a triple-double in a Denver victory for a price of +134. Caesars is offering the best value on the no option in this two-way market, listing the odds at -117 on Jokic to not record a triple-double in Game 1.
Heat vs. Nuggets odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
Heat vs. Nuggets odds analysis
The Nuggets opened as 6-point fa vorites, but the market has moved the spread to -9 at our best NBA betting sites. This one-way traffic is a result of the situation, in which Denver has the clear rest advantage against Miami.
As for the total, the line hasn't moved as much. The Over/Under is now set at 219 after opening 218.5 at the best live betting sites.
Heat vs. Nuggets game info
- Date: Thursday, June 1, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Heat-Nuggets pick made 05/31/2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
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