With the Eastern Conference semifinal matchup all but over, the Miami Heat will look to wrap up a series win on the road against the New York Knicks on Wednesday. Read on for our Heat vs. Knicks prediction based on the best NBA odds.
Despite being a No. 8 seed after winning the second Play-In Tournament game, the Miami Heat are just one victory away from their third trip to the conference finals in the last five years. The New York Knicks hope to avoid elimination by taking care of business at home as betting favorites.
For Wednesday's Game 5, we are turning to the player prop market to find our best bet ahead of tipoff.
Here is our best Heat vs. Knicks prediction (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. Knicks prediction
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The Heat have a chance to end this series on the road, but it won't come easy. The Knicks will likely put it all on the line in Game 5, meaning it will be up to Miami's key players to rise to the challenge in Madison Square Garden.
In this case, we are betting on big man Bam Adebayo instead of Jimmy Butler. Hopefully, that decision doesn't come back to bite us.
But Adebayo has performed well in this series, averaging 17.8 points per game to go along with 10.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists. For this particular prop, Adebayo is capable of clearing this mark on the glass alone. And he's done just that, recording 12 or more rebounds in back-to-back games.
Adebayo has finished Over this combo line of 11.5 rebounds and assists in three consecutive contests since recording eight rebounds and two assists in Game 1. He has multiple dimes in three of the four matchups, and has collected eight or more boards in all four outings.
This postseason, Adebayo has cleared this mark in seven of the 10 games while averaging 8.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists. This comes after he averaged 9.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game during the 2022-23 regular season.
Bet on the big man to continue playing well in a game where Miami has chance to punch its ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Heat vs. Knicks best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 11.5 rebounds + assists | Over 11.5 rebounds + assists | Over 11.5 rebounds + assists | Over 11.5 rebounds + assists | Over 11.5 rebounds + assists |
| -110 | +102 | -110 | -113 | -110 |
All five of the best sportsbooks have set this line at 11.5, but this is a four-star pick because we are getting a plus-money price to bet on Adebayo's streak continuing. We would play this at -110 or better, but FanDuel's +102 offering is too enticing to pass up right now.
NumberFire projects Adebayo to record 8.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists in Game 5, giving us a 10.6% edge on the Over at this price.
Alternatively, Butler's steal prop is always worth a look during the NBA playoffs. It is currently set at 1.5, with the Over juiced to -115 at DraftKings. Butler has cleared that mark in eight of his 10 games this postseason, which includes the Play-In Tournament. Butler has posted a hit rate of 74% on his steals prop over the last two playoff runs, according to props.cash.
Heat vs. Knicks odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
Heat vs. Knicks odds analysis
The markets haven't budged at the best NBA betting sites since open. The Knicks remain 3.5-point favorites while getting 71% of the money. The total has remained at 209.5, with 60% of bets on the Under.
For context, Miami has covered the spread in all four games of this series thus far. The total has alternated between Over and Under, with Game 4 finishing above the closing point total of 209.5 just two days ago.
Heat vs. Knicks game info
- Date: Wednesday, May 10, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Heat-Knicks prediction made 5/10/2023 at 11:35 a.m. ET.
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