The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat meet again in the Eastern Conference Finals, but should we expect the same result as last year's series? Read on for our Heat-Celtics pick based on the best NBA odds.
The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are set to face off in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second straight year. The Celtics needed seven games to knock off the Heat in 2022, but they enter this series as significant favorites to prevail once again.
Boston is coming off a Game 7 thrashing of the Philadelphia 76ers after losing the opener of that series. The Celtics need to perform better in Game 1 this time around. Despite being banged up, the Heat are a tough team and won't be as likely to surrender a series lead like the 76ers did in the semifinal round.
Here is our best Heat-Celtics prediction for Game 1 (odds via PointsBet; Pick conf idence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NBA Best Bets for Tuesday and our NBA SGP.
Heat vs. Celtics prediction
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
The Celtics have a problem with coughing up some games they should win, which is why their opening-round series against the Atlanta Hawks went six contests, and their semifinal matchup went the distance. Boston should take care of business against a depleted Miami squad. But how confident are we in that happening?
There could be value in Heat-related markets early in the series, especially with bettors underestimating the team's chances in this series. The assist prop for point guard Gabe Vincent really stands out right now.
< p class='text-left'>Vincent has cleared this assist line in eight consecutive games, averaging 5.25 dimes per contest over that span. He averaged 4.7 assists per outing during a six-game series victory over the New York Knicks in the previous round.
That's been a theme ever since Tyler Herro suffered his injury in Game 1 against the Milwaukee Bucks during the opening round, and he remains sidelined with a broken hand. The Heat need another playmaker to step up in his absence, and Vincent has obliged while averaging 4.7 assists in the 10 games since then.
Vincent is registering a 64% hit rate while covering this assist prop in 25 of his 39 games without Herro over the last two seasons, according to props.cash. That probably helps explain why props.cash is projecting 4.4 assists for Vincent in Game 1.
With those projections, we should be paying a much steeper juice to take the Over. Instead, PointsBet, which Fanatics recently acquired, is offering a standard -110 vig. We'll happily take the discount for this four-star pick.
Check out our Lakers-Warriors pick.
Heat vs. Celtics best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 assists | Over 3.5 assists | Over 3.5 assists | Over 3.5 assists | Over 3.5 assists |
| -115 | -115 | -130 | -125 | -110 |
All of the best sports betting apps have set Vincent's assist line at 3.5, but the juice on the Over varies depending on the shop. In this case, PointsBet is offering an appetizing -110 vig to bet on Vincent recording four-plus assists in Game 1.
Given his recent form, we would play this Over at anything -120 or better before looking elsewhere in the prop market. This means both DraftKings and FanDuel offer playable numbers.
Heat vs. Celtics odds
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
Heat vs. Celtics odds analysis
The spread hasn't really moved at our best NBA betting sites, as the Celtics have remained 8-point favorites since the lines opened. Based on the current market, Boston is being valued about 5 points better than Mi ami on a neutral court entering this series.
As for the total, the line hasn't moved off 210 at the best sports betting sites.
Heat vs. Celtics game info
- Date: Wednesday, May 17, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Heat-Celtics pick made 05/16/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Here are our best NBA betting sites:
- FanDuel: $1,000 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)