After the Miami Heat upset the Milwaukee Bucks in the opener, Wednesday's Game 2 remains even more unclear due to multiple injuries. Read on for our Heat vs. Bucks prediction based on the best NBA odds.
In the biggest upset of the opening weekend, the Miami Heat secured a 130-117 win over the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 on Sunday. Giannis Antetokounmpo played just 11 minutes and now is doubtful for Game 2 with a back injury.
The problem is, Miami lost a valuable player in Tyler Herro when he broke his right hand while diving for a loose ball. With two key starters expected to be sidelined, this matchup becomes even more difficult to handicap.
Here is our best Heat vs. Bucks prediction (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Heat vs. Bucks prediction
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Herro's absence looms large for a Heat team that desperately needs offensive production outside of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. We are counting on Gabe Vincent, Miami's third-year point guard out of UC Santa Barbara, to help fill that void.
Vincent finished with 15 points, six assists, and two rebounds in Game 1 against Milwaukee. He shot the ball only six times but knocked down five of them, going 4-for-5 from long range. According to Cleaning the Glass, Vincent's usage rating of 15.8% ranked third among players who logged at least 24 minutes.
According to Statmuse, Vincent averaged 15.8 points and 3.7 assists per game in 12 contests wi thout Herro during the regular season. Though Vincent's points prop of 10.5 is worth a look, we settled on his assist line due to the limited number of shot attempts in Game 1.
Vincent has finished Over 2.5 assists in eight of the 12 games that he's played without Herro, including seven of the last nine. NumberFire projects 3.9 assists for Vincent in Game 2, giving us a strong edge on this Over.
In a game with so much uncertainty, we feel confident in recommending this as a four-star pick. If this line moves too much by tipoff, we would also consider playing Over on Vincent's points prop (10.5) and Over on his combo line of points and assists (12.5).
Heat vs. Bucks best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
| -130 | -160 | -140 | -129 | -160 |
As of midday, all of our best NBA betting sites have Vincent's assist prop locked in at 2.5. But there is a wide discrepancy between prices on the Over when shopping around for the best value.
We are placing this bet at Caesars because we save a bit by going there. DraftKings Sportsbook is the next shop we'd consider, especially due to the same-game parlay options, though this bet is playable at anything -140 or better.
Heat vs. Bucks odds
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Heat vs. Bucks odds analysis
The Bucks opened as 7.5-point favorites, but the line has since dropped to 6.5 at our top sports betting sites. The total started at 222 earlier in the week before dropping down to 219 at the time of this writing.
For context, Milwaukee was a 9-point favorite in Game 1 and the total finished well Over its mark of 221.
Heat vs. Bucks game info
- Date: Wednesday, April 19, 9 p.m. ET
- TV: NBA TV
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Heat-Bucks pick made 04/19/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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