:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71577341/1244416935.0.jpg "Hart Trophy odds 2023: Connor McDavid remains favorite at start of November")
The 2022-23 NHL season is into November and we're almost at the one-month mark on the season. Through about 9-10 games for each team, things have gone somewhat as expected in the Hart Trophy race. Let's take a look at the odds, identifying the favorites and any potential sleepers.
Hart Trophy odds 2023: Nov. 2
There's a very good chance McDavid runs away with this award and anything I write past this sentence is pointless. He's already leading the NHL in points with 22 through 10 games. Leon Draisaitl is right behind him at 21, but it feels a lot like that's because of McDavid anyway. At this current pace, McDavid would post 180 points on the season. That isn't sustainable or likely, but the realm of 140-150 is very attainable.
Last season, McDavid had 123 and couldn't beat out Auston Matthews. If McDavid posts 130+ and the Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs, there's virtually no way he doesn't win MVP. He also looks like a shoe-in for the Art Ross Trophy. At +140, it's now or never to get your bets on McDavid before it shifts to around -200-250.
Honestly, while we're on the Oilers, it feels odd Draisaitl dropped from +1000 to +1300 for MVP. He could keep pace with McDavid in points and if the goals start to shift, could get closer in that category. It's not like Draisaitl hasn't beat out McDavid for MVP before.
The Boston Bruins are off to the best start in the NHL through 10 games at 9-1-0 and 18 points. Pastrnak is a big reason why. He's third in points at 18 behind Draisaitl and McDavid. While the Oilers will likely be in the playoff picture, will they finish higher than the Bruins? Will Edmonton be the best team in the West? It doesn't feel as likely. Boston has done this before, dominating a regular season. That could be enough to help Pastrnak rise in the MVP conversation if he can keep up with the two Oilers' centers.
Panarin is a interesting case. On one hand, he can score in bunches and the New York Rangers should continue to do so. New York has a shot at the Metro Division title. It's just Panarin probably isn't on the line or in the offense to outscore McDavid or Draisaitl. That would need to happen, plus the Rangers win the Metro and perhaps the Eastern Conference regular-season title.
No shift in odds for Eichel feels weird. He's currently the best player on the top team in the West. The Golden Knights don't have the type of roster that'll just go away and Bruce Cassidy is a great coach. So it feels like Vegas is for real and will remain toward the top of the West. If that's the case, Eichel has a better shot than players like Auston Matthews (+700), Nathan MacKinnon (+1200) and Sidney Crosby (+3000). Eichel has 12 points in 11 games. We haven't been accustomed to seeing Eichel on a good team. He's not a bad sleeper for Hart.