Because each of the NFL’s 32 teams plays its division opponent twice, there are 96 pre-scheduled rematch games on the NFL schedule each season out of 272 total games. That makes up more than 35% of all games, making it crucial to know the ins and outs of handicapping these same-season rematch games. Note that last critical adjective: same-season. This data only includes games played against a team a second (or third in case of playoffs) time in a given season.
The decision to increase the playoff field to seven teams in each conference recently made for an increased level of competition for the final spots and positioning. This year it figures to be as heightened as ever as through 10 weeks, only one division race appears to be locked up, that being the NFC North. Furthermore, in the AFC, there are eight teams within three games of one another for in the race for the three wild-card spots. In the NFC, there are just as many teams in play for the second and third wild-card spots. Simply put, there is a lot left to be determined in the season’s final eight weeks. So, what will eventually separate the teams and clarify the playoff picture? Well, in short, it could be the same-season rematch games, and I’m here to share some key trends and betting systems you should consider as you analyze these key clashes.
A couple of readers were angry with me last year for waiting to present this study until Week 16, thus missing out on many of the rematches. This season, only seven have been played, including three last weekend. This week’s NFL slate offers up the biggest group of games so far, four, so this is a good time to release the info. These are the games for the upcoming Sunday that will be rematches:
— Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: PIT won in Week 1, 23-20
— Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: KC won in Week 2, 27-24
— Las Vegas at Denver: LV won in Week 4, 32-23
— N.Y. Jets at New England: NE won in Week 8, 22-17
Like any situational form of analysis, naturally there are teams that perform better than others in the same-season rematch scenario. There are also teams (and coaches) that are better or worse at adjusting to an opponent the second time around depending on whether they won or lost in the first outing. Take a look at this chart that details the same season rematch records of all the teams in the NFL from 2012 through the games of Week 10.
I’ve highlighted the best and worst teams in the league in various scenarios. Some of the teams that have performed best have been the Chiefs, Vikings and Saints, while teams including the Jets, Raiders, Bears and Browns have struggled in rematches. Use the chart over the next couple of months to spot opportunities to take advantage of these tendencies.
Of course, while the chart will help you in analyzing head-to-head matchups for the rest of the season, it might be most effective for readers if I pointed out some of the best info from my analysis. Here are some of the top team trends I uncovered.
Best NFL rematch teams lately
— Cincinnati: 9-9 SU but 16-2 ATS last 18 rematch opportunities
— Dallas: 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS since ’17
— Detroit: 9-1 ATS run in rematches
— New Orleans: 10-1 SU and ATS run
— San Francisco: 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS last 13
— Tennessee: 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS surge
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
— Arizona: 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS skid last 14
— Carolina: 11-18 SU and 9-20 ATS in rematches since ’14
— Chicago: 1-9 ATS last 10
— Cleveland: lengthy 6-23-1 ATS rematch skid last 30
— Denver: 2-13 SU and 5-10 ATS last 15 tries
— N.Y. Jets: 4-15 SU and 6-12-1 ATS skid
— Philadelphia: just 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS last nine rematch games
Best NFL HOME rematch teams lately
— Buffalo: 10-4 SU and ATS last 14 home rematches, scoring 30.1 ppg.
— Cincinnati: 10-2 ATS last 12 home rematch opportunities
— Jacksonville: 9-4 SU and 10-2-1 ATS last 13 home rematches
Worst NFL HOME rematch teams lately
— Arizona: brutal 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS home stretch
— Baltimore: 1-6 ATS last 7 rematch home games
— Carolina: Nov. 10 win vs. Atlanta snapped nine-game ATS home skid
— Chicago: 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS last 10
— Cleveland: Lost last 12 home rematch games ATS! (4-8 SU)
— Washington: Current 7-game SU losing streak (1-6 ATS)
Best NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
— Baltimore: 13-2 ATS last 15 rematch road games
— Chicago: 1-7 ATS last 8
— Cincinnati: Won last 8 road rematches ATS
— L.A. Rams: 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in last nine on road
— New Orleans: Nine SU wins in a row, 14-1 ATS last 15 on road
— San Francisco: 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS last eight
Worst NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
— Denver: 10 straight outright road rematch losses (2-8 ATS)
— Houston: 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS last nine road rematches
— Jacksonville: ugly 1-16 SU and 6-11 ATS road rematch skid
— Las Vegas: 2-9 SU and ATS in last 11
— New England: surprising 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS record last 16
Best NFL REVENGE teams lately
— Detroit: current 8-1 ATS run in revenge opportunities
— New Orleans: 7-3 SU and 10-0 ATS streak in revenge games
Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
— Chicago: 3-15 SU and 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 revenge tries
— Cleveland: 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS last 12 revenge games
— Green Bay: 1-6 SU and ATS in last seven revenge attempts
— Indianapolis: 2-8 ATS skid in revenge mode
— Pittsburgh: 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS last 11 revenge, including 0-4 SU and ATS last four
Best NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
— Cincinnati: 9-2 SU and ATS in last 11 follow-up games, including last seven ATS
— Dallas: on 9-2 SU and ATS run following up h2h series win
— San Francisco: 7-1 SU and ATS last 8
— Tampa Bay: Six straight outright and ATS wins
Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately