The Cleveland Guardians (+115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-140) on Thursday, October 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37pm EDT in Bronx for this postseason game.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under is 6 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 94-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 73-90 ATS.
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Guardians vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 36 away games (+15.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.60 Units / 52% ROI)
- Austin Hedges has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.05 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 80% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 146 games (+25.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 away games (+15.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 away games (+13.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 59 away games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+8.55 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 76 games at home (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 86-79 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 2.23% ROI).
- 94-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.8 Units / 9.93% ROI
- 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -7.66% ROI
- 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.85% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 73-90 against the Run Line (-19.15 Units / -10.09% ROI).
- 100-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.14% ROI
- 76-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -7.83% ROI
- 82-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.11% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .387 (12-for-31) against Shane Bieber — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — sixth Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 57% of the time (560/990) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (89/266) against Shane Bieber on fastballs since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .155 (41 Total Bases / 265 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 54% of the time (538/990) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
19 of Nestor Cortes’ 58 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (903/1,658) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 61% of the time (273/447) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.