The Cleveland Guardians (-140) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+115) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 82-66 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 66-82 ATS.
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+12.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 31 away games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 67 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 72 of his last 106 games (+31.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 72 of his last 108 games (+21.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 59 of his last 108 games (+16.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 27 away games (+15.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+15.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 away games (+14.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the White Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+3.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+2.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 77-70 against the Run Line (+3.2 Units / 1.74% ROI).
- 82-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.55 Units / 8.98% ROI
- 66-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.95 Units / -8.58% ROI
- 73-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.09% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 66-82 against the Run Line (-17.95 Units / -10.27% ROI).
- 75-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.8 Units / -8.72% ROI
- 67-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -5.92% ROI
- 71-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.34% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 59% of the time (423/717) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 68% of the time (939/1,374) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .185 (42-for-227) against Shane Bieber versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (38/109) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Johnny Cueto: White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (28/217) against Johnny Cueto with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (106/595) against Johnny Cueto this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Johnny Cueto against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 412.4 feet — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
The average home run distance against Johnny Cueto since the start of last season is 411.4 feet — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 399.1