The Cleveland Guardians (-160) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+135) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 72-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-73 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 55 games (+13.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 48 games at home (+16.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 51 games (+11.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 61 away games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 away games (+11.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 136 games (+10.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+1.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 70-65 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- 72-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 4.75% ROI
- 59-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.5 Units / -10.39% ROI
- 68-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 1.89% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-73 against the Run Line (-13.8 Units / -8.44% ROI).
- 69-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.56% ROI
- 66-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 0.57% ROI
- 60-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -8.56% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 58% of the time (389/665) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (361/1,189) against Shane Bieber this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 87th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 32% (206/638) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .153 (35 Total Bases / 229 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.
Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game