The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+105) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 70-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-72 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games at home (+15.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 46 games at home (+14.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 69-65 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 70-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 3.62% ROI
- 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -11.89% ROI
- 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 3.51% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-72 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.53% ROI).
- 69-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 64-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.78% ROI
- 60-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -7.11% ROI
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (50/158) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .159 (11-for-69) against Triston McKenzie on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (225/483) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .217 (152 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Christopher Archer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Archer has thrown his slider 54% of the time (237/441) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Chris Archer has located his fastball up for a strike just 46% (164/358) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (64/141) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown his slider 55% of the time (203/370) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.