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The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are about to embark on a coin-flip game in Game 3 of their American League Division Series based on the top MLB betting odds.
- When a Division Series under the current 2-2-1 format is tied 1-1, the team heading home for Games 3 and 4 has won the series 66% of the time (29 of 44)
- After Game 2 finished 3-0, the Under is 20-3-4 in Cleveland's games since the start of September
- This is the first ever postseason series between two of the five-youngest teams in baseball
Our Guardians vs. Tigers prediction expects Detroit to take the series lead in front of what should be a raucous Comerica Park crowd for the first time this playoffs. We are coming off a profitable 1-1 day with our Game 2 predictions, as Riley Greene's hitless day cashed our bet at +135 odds.
Guardians vs. Tigers predictions: Game 3
- Moneyline pick: Tigers (-104 via FanDuel) ???
- My best bet: Parker Meadows Under 0.5 hits (+146 via Caesars) ???
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Guardians vs. Tigers?
First pitch: 3:08 p.m. ET, Comerica Park
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%
After the Guardians' pitching staff of Matthew Boyd, Cade Smith, and Tim Herrin matched zeroes with Tigers ace Tarik Skubal for seven innings in Game 2, it seemed the momentum was swinging to Cleveland.
However, Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, who had not allowed multiple runs in an outing or a home run to a left-handed batter all season, was tagged for a thre e-run home run in the ninth inning. Though it was the first time in Clase's six postseason appearances that he allowed a run, the back end of Cleveland's bullpen is no longer seemingly invincible.
I expect Tigers manager A.J. Hinch to employ another “Chaos Ball” strategy with some abridged bullpen/opener game again. While that strategy backfired in Game 1, with Cleveland scoring five runs in the first inning before recording a single out, I trust Hinch to mix and match and find the right combinations that work. He also has the built-in advantage of knowing that Skubal will be on full rest if the series gets to Game 5, which will help some bullpen decisions in this game.
This is a three-star play, as Cleveland's Alex Cobb is toeing the rubber for just the fourth time this season. He was shelled for five runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings in his only road start this season. And while Cleveland's “Big Four” of Smith, Herri n, Hunter Gaddis, and Clase will likely be called upon once again to make up the bulk of the relief work, the more Detroit faces them in a short span, the more the advantage tilts in the Tigers' favor.
FanDuel is the only one of our top sports betting sites offering better than -108 odds to back the Tigers, so I am placing my $10 wager, hoping to return a $19.62 payout.
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Oddsmakers may be tipping their hands that Parker Meadows is in for a rough day at the plate, as he has the fifth-lowest odds to record at least one base hit among all Tigers batters.
Meadows is 4-for-16 this postseason, and his seven total bases lead the team. But while he has spread out those four hits among all four postseason games to this point, five of his 12 outs have been strikeouts, and he is not likely to get in a groove facing the same pitcher for multiple at-bats in this game given the likely short leash Cobb will have.
His batting average dipped for three consecutive months from July to September, and if Cleveland deploys mostly right-hand ed pitching in this matchup, Meadows' .239/.309/.437 slash line in that split does not inspire much confidence.
Best odds: +146 via Caesars | Implied probability: 40.65%
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Guardians vs. Tigers odds & Game 3 info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 9
- First pitch: 3:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Comerica Park, Detroit
- How to watch: TBS/truTV/Max
- Favorite: Guardians (-112 via FanDuel)
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