The Cleveland Guardians (-135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+115) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Guardians are 12-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 14-12 ATS.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 69.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.40 Units / 45% ROI)
• Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 37% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 42% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.75 Units / 61% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+11.50 Units / 82% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 99% ROI)

Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 71% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+1.85 Units / 11% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 31% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 9-16 against the Run Line (-6.3 Units / -21.69% ROI).

• 12-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -18.98% ROI
• 10-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.55 Units / -20.07% ROI
• 14-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 11.15% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-12 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 3.77% ROI).

• 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -1.8% ROI
• 18-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.15 Units / 32.28% ROI
• 8-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -42.34% ROI

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (92/143) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .082 (4 Total Bases / 49 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .082 (4-for-49) against Shane Bieber with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (17/28) against Shane Bieber in two-strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (1,045/2,430) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 37% of Nick Pivetta’s non-fastballs (64/175) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 206 of Nick Pivetta’s 888 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.

  
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