The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 64-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 56-65 ATS.
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today's Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday's matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We've highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+12.85 Units / 80% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday's game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 51 games (+14.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+13.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 40 of his last 53 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 13 away games (+11.40 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 away games (+10.10 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 43 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.25 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 55 of their last 99 games (+14.85 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-55 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 3.03% ROI).
- 64-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.05 Units / 6.79% ROI
- 55-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -5% ROI
- 56-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -3.36% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 56-65 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -8.14% ROI).
- 66-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.91% ROI
- 57-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -7.08% ROI
- 61-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.63% ROI
Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to July 8th – the longest active streak is 8.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (41/123) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of 2020 – 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 22% – third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (29/87) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of last season – tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 22% – second Percentile.
50% of Aaron Civale's called strikeouts are elevated since the start of last season – highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 22% – 100th Percentile.
Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Clevinger has allowed an OBP of .412 (51 PA's) with two-strikes this month (4 games) – highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 – first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (8/44) against Mike Clevinger this month (4 games) – lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% – first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .326 (14-for-43) against Mike Clevinger with two-strikes this month (4 games) – 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 – second Percentile.
Mike Clevinger has allowed an OPS of .877 (51 PA's) with two-strikes this month (4 games) – highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .489 – first Percentile.