The Cleveland Guardians (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+180).
The Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 6-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 10-10 ATS.
Guardians vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 72.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Mariners vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Mariners vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Mariners vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Mariners vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -140 |
| Luis Castillo | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -120 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 away games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 87 games (+4.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 8-11 against the Run Line (-5.6 Units / -22.44% ROI).
- 6-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.45 Units / -31.04% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -19% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 11.81% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 10-10 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -4.17% ROI).
- 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -40.3% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 32.4% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (40/114) against Shane Bieber on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Shane Bieber located his fastball away 57% of the time (560/990) last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (138/375) against Shane Bieber with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (89/266) against Shane Bieber on fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo had a strikeout rate of 48% (62/130) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (210/362) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (281/474) against Luis Castillo since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.