It's a quiet getaway day in the majors, but Thursday concludes with an exciting showdown in Houston, and we're offering our top Guardians vs. Astros player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
OK, it's only May, but is it time to start worrying about the Houston Astros?
The Astros entered the season with a projected win total hovering around 93.5, and they roster three players who serve as major contenders by the MLB MVP odds in the American League. And yet, they're just 10-20 following another loss on Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians – and the entire AL Central, for that matter – are one of the biggest surprises of this young MLB season. They're 20-10, good for first place in a division that features four teams with winning percentages above .560.
The Guardians will look to han d the World Series odds-contender Astros another defeat when first pitch is thrown at 8:10 p.m. on Thursday from Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas.
Can the Astros begin to right the ship and look more like the team many thought they'd be? Or will the Guardians continue to make our best sports betting sites look silly following a projected win total of only 79.5?
Here are our best Guardians vs. Astros player props and MLB picks (odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Guardians vs. Astros player props
- Logan Allen Over 3.5 strikeouts (-150 via bet365) ???
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+102 via BetRivers) ???
- Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+114 via BetRivers) ???
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Guardians vs. Astros expert picks
This is a bit of a weird one, as Guardians starter Logan Allen isn't an especially prolific strikeout artist – sitting at just 7.47 punchouts per nine innings this season – and the Astros strike out at the lowest rate in the league.
However, one of the biggest things working in Allen's favor on Thursday is that he's lef t-handed. The Astros' Big 3 of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Altuve strike out more often against southpaws. Tucker owns a 19.2% K rate against lefties vs. 11.9% against righties, Alvarez is at 18.4% to 11.9%, and Altuve is at 19.4% to 11.9%, respectively.
Allen is projected to record 4.76 Ks on Thursday. Based on that average projection from two of our trusted models, we're getting roughly 14% positive expected value on this bet.
Our other best sports betting apps are hovering around -160 to back this Over.
Best odds: -150 via bet365
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Call it a hedge if you want, but we're combining Allen's strikeout Over with a pair of total bases Overs on Astros stars.
First, we'll look at Alvarez, who's off to a relatively slow start at the plate. He's slashing just .254/.323/.458, with a career-low 122 wRC+. However, Alvarez's batted-ball data is still among the most elite in the majors, as his Statcast page is gushing with red.
Thursday's projections also show us this is a good time to back Alvarez, and we're getting roughly 8% +EV on this bet based on them. Additionally, these +102 odds at BetRivers are very good, as our other best sportsbooks are hovering around -115 for Alvarez to go Over 1.5 total bases.
Best odds: +102 via BetRivers
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Unlike Alvarez, Altuve is off to a scorching-hot start at the dish this season. He ranks among the league leaders by fWAR thanks to a career-best 186 wRC+, and he's mashed seven homers to go along with four stolen bases.
As was the case with our Alvarez Over, though, we're seeing serious value on this +114 price at BetRivers when we run today's projections against it.
We're getting roughly 8.5% +EV thanks to these very generous odds, as the rest of our best live betting sites are hovering around -105, with bet365 as short as -110.
The Astros' horrible start is due to no fault of Altuve, and we expect him to continue his impressive play on Thursday.
Best odds: +114 via BetRivers
Guardians vs. Astros game info & odds
- When: Thursday, May 2
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
- How to watch: Space City Home Network, Bally Sports Great Lakes
- Favorite: Astros (-125 via bet365)
Guardians vs. Astros player props made Thursday at 8 a.m. ET.
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