Guardians-Mariners prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, April 1

The Cleveland Guardians will visit the Seattle Mariners Saturday night in the third game of a four-game series. The two teams split the first two games of the series. First pitch tonight is set for 9:40 p.m. ET.

The Mariners are -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Guardians are +110. The total is set for 7.

Guardians-Mariners picks: Saturday, April 1

Guardians

Out: SP Triston McKenzie (right teres major strain), RP Sam Hentges (left shoulder inflammation), RP Cody Morris (right teres major strain)

Mariners

Out: INF Dylan Moore (core surgery), OF Taylor Trammell (broken hamate in right hand)

Aaron Civale vs. Logan Gilbert

Civale struggled through the worst season of his career in 2022, as he spent time on the injured list with wrist inflammation, forearm inflammation, and a strained glute en route to a 4.92 ERA in 97 innings. When Civale's at his best, he's able to use his increidble command and pitch repertoire to keep batter's off-balance, but moments like that have been few and far between lately.

After having an average rookie season in 2021, Gilbert took a huge step forward last season, going 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA in 185 2/3 innings. While Gilbert gives up a little more hard contact than you'd like (he was in the bottom 3rd percentile in average exit velocity), he has an electric fastball and strong command of the strike zone. He allowed two earned runs in 6 1/3 in his only start against Cleveland last year.

After being shutout on Opening Day, the Guardians' offense broke out for eight runs on Friday, while the Mariners scored three runs on Opening Day and four runs last night. While the ball hasn't carried at all through the first two games of the series (Ty France has the only home run of the series), both teams have been able to put runs on the board by keeping the line moving. I think that'll continue tonight.

Pick: over 7

The Mariners have a clear advantage on the pitching mound, but the Guardians offense is coming off a strong effort last night. That said, no one on Cleveland's offense has hit Gilbert well in the past, which gives the Mariners the edge. The Mariners should get to Civale early, and Gilbert should do just enough to hold a lead for the back-end of Seattle's bullpen.

Pick: Mariners ML

  
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