The Memphis Grizzlies enter Tuesday's game against the Dallas Mavericks without star point guard Ja Morant, and our Grizzlies vs. Mavericks NBA player props based on the best NBA odds anticipate a big game for Memphis' new top facilitator.
It was the injury heard 'round the world on Monday when the Memphis Grizzlies (13-23) announced that star guard Ja Morant would miss the rest of the season after going down with a shoulder injury in Saturday's practice.
That doesn't bode well for their season outlook – or their chances of beating the Dallas Mavericks (22-15) in one of five NBA games on Tuesday. That said, Morant's injury should spell some immediate returns for one of his teammates, though we're skeptical about his absence benefitting Memphis' top players across the board.
Along with our NBA player props and best bets for Tuesday, here are our best Grizzlies vs. Mavericks NBA player props and NBA picks (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks NBA player props
In recent years, Morant's extended absences benefitted backup point guard Tyus Jones, an assists machine with his teammate sidelined. Technically, Marcus Smart fills that void this year, but we're banking on an uptick in playmaking from Bane on Tuesday.
It's Bane who ranks second on this team in assists per game (5.4) ahead of Smart (4.5), and he's also the clear top-scoring option (24.5 PPG) now that Morant is on the shelf. That means we should see the ball in Bane's hands even more, as he's already averaging a career-high 28.5% usage rate even while sharing the court with Morant.
Bane has proven to be a willing passer this season, ranking in the top 25 in assist rate (28.2%) with the third-highest mark of any pure shooting guard. He's also just four days removed from dishing out a career-high 13 assists in a win over the Los Angeles Lakers after an eight-assist effort the night before – both coming with Morant on the floor.
This is a relatively low bar to clear for what should be Memphis' top facilitator on Tuesday, and we're catching generous +102 odds from FanDuel even as this prop is trading as short as -120 elsewhere. That's my kind of bet.
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While Morant's absence is a clear boon for Bane's potential production, I don't see it having the same effect on Jackson, who has consistently benefitted from Morant's playmaking and his gravity around the rim.
Oddsmakers seem to be expecting a bump from Jackson without his star teammate, pricing this prop more than two points above his season average (21.3 PPG) across our best sportsbooks. That doesn't make much sense – he's averaged just 0.4 more points without Morant (21.4) than with him (21.0) while shooting more than eight percentage points worse from the field.
Jackson has also fallen below this total in three of his last four games without Morant and 17 of 27 total this season, and he enters Tuesday with a questionable tag after bruising his knee on Sunday, adding to the injury issues for this reeling Memphis squad.
If he doesn't play, you'll get your money back. If he does? You'll be holding an Under ticket on a player at less than 100 percent on an inflated total.
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This may not seem related to Morant's i njury, but the Grizzlies' new-look lineup without their star guard should provide a direct opportunity for Jones to cash on his rebounding total at a compelling price.
Without Morant, the Grizzlies will likely trot out veteran wing Luke Kennard, whose rebounding rate (7.6%) is among the worst on the team. He started in Morant's place on Sunday when Memphis allowed the Phoenix Suns center to grab 19 rebounds in a losing effort, and he's a clear downgrade on the boards, even compared to the smaller Morant.
The Mavericks don't have a singularly dominant rebounding center – unless you count Dereck Lively (7.6 RPG), who is questionable to play Tuesday – but Jones has helped pick up the slack from the wing, grabbing at least four rebounds in 12 of his last 20 games with a whopping 10 boards in Sunday's win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
All of our best sports betting sites are trading Jone s' rebounding prop at 5.5, but only DraftKings is offering this wager at +120. There's some obvious risk, but the matchup begs for a play at plus-money.
Grizzlies-Mavericks NBA player props made Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.
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