MLB value plays for Tuesday, May 23rd
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today's menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Tigers vs. Royals (-115). Greg’s Line: Royals -140
Zack Greinke has allowed just three home runs in 94 innings pitched at home since returning to Kansas City in 2022. He has posted a 2.30 ERA at home and a 5.66 road ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Tigers are averaging 3.5 runs per game on the road this season, the second-fewest in the league. Starter Matthew Boyd has a 6.35 ERA with at least three runs allowed in four straight starts. Red Sox (-115) vs. Angels. Greg’s Line: Angels -126. The Red Sox offense has plated just one run in the last three games and appears to be experiencing regression. Baseball Savant has their expected batting average at .252, 14 points lower than their actual .266 batting average. Angels starter Tyler Anderson appears to be regaining his 2022 All-Star form with three runs or fewer allowed in each of his last four starts. He faces a Red Sox lineup that is averaging 4.5 runs per game on the road compared to six runs per game at home while the Angels are averaging more than 1.5 home runs per game at home/ Rangers (-125) vs. Pirates. Greg’s Line: Pirates -116. Rangers starter Martin Perez has struggled on the road with a 5.28 ERA and eight home runs allowed in 30 innings this season compared to a 1.93 ERA without a single home run allowed at home. The Rangers back him up with a bullpen that is 27th in the league in ERA while the Pirates are 11th in bullpen ERA. Starter Johan Oviedo has allowed either one or zero runs in five of his last eight starts. Astros vs. Brewers (-110). Greg’s Line: Astros -137. The Astros are 14-9 on the road this season with the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the league. The Brewers are 18th in bullpen ERA and 22nd in the league in runs scored per game. They have to face Astros starter Brandon Bielak, who’s getting 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings with a 2.89 ERA. Brewers starter Adrian Houser has a 3.81 ERA with 6.4 strikeouts and four walks per nine innings since the start of the 2021 season.