Round 3 of Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's will take place in Tuesday's WCC championship game in Las Vegas. Read on for our Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.
The Orleans Arena in Las Vegas will be the site of the third installment of this Gonzaga-Saint Mary's rivalry. Gonzaga big man Drew Timme said it best after Monday's semifinal victory when he noted that these two teams have a “respected hatred” for each other.
Both of these teams shared a West Coast Conference regular-season title after going 14-2 in league play and splitting the season series, so Tuesday's championship game is for both bragging rights and an opportunity to cut down the nets. Gonzaga cruised to a 77-68 home win in the last meeting on Feb. 25 and enters this matchup as a short favorite once again.
Here is our best Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's odds
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's prediction
If you have been reading my content on the national championship market for the last month, you probably know I'm backing Gonzaga in an underdog role this March. According to Bart Torvik's customizable efficiency ranks, the Bulldogs have been the No. 2 team in the country since Feb. 1 and have the best offense in all of college basketball.
So, it has to mean something that I'm betting on the Gaels here. Bart Torvik projects a 72-70 victory for Saint Mary's, while Ken Pomeroy's projected score is 73-72 in favor of the Gaels. The wrong team might be favored here, suggesting there is value in taking the points.
Saint Mary's won the first meeting between these two teams with a 78-70 victory, dictating the pace in that game. The interesting thing about the rematch is that it was even slower, playing to 69 possessions. The reason why pace is a key aspect of this matchup is that the Bulldogs prefer to turn things into a track meet, while the Gaels want to grind it out.
Gonzaga controlled the rematch from start to finish because it threw a surprise full-court pressure defense at Saint Mary's for over 40% of its possessions. Randy Bennett's Gaels did eventually handle the pressure better after a rough start, so we believe they will be ready for it this time around.
Saint Mary's hasn't won this tournament since 2019 and has been sitting in Gonzaga's shadow over the last few years. The Gaels, who are playing for a N o. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, are going to be plenty motivated to win this one. This would be a four-star pick at +3 or better, but we will take anything at +2 or above for our three-star play in the WCC final.
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Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
| +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
This is the biggest game of the night, so we aren't surprised to learn that all of our top-rated sportsbooks are listing the same spread of 2.5. We went with DraftKings Sportsbook, as that is our preferred shop to wager on player props in college basketball.
Timme is now five points away from surpassing Frank Burgess as Gonzaga's all-time leading scorer after dropping 17 on Monday. He should break the record Tuesday, but take a look at his props when they are released. Timme scored 19 points last time out against the Gaels.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's odds analysis
Gonzaga opened as a 2-point favorite but is now laying 2.5 across the board. The total started at 140 and has since drifted down to 138 based on the pace of the previous two meetings between these two teams.
The Bulldogs h ave been a bit inflated in the market all year, going 12-18-1 against the spread and 19-12 to the Over. The Gaels, meanwhile, are 17-12-2 ATS and 16-15 to the Over so far this season.
Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's game info
Date: Tuesday, March 7, 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Gonzaga-Saint Mary's pick made 03/07/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
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