The San Francisco Giants (+105) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-125) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Giants are 42-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 39-45 ATS.
Giants vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Giants starting pitcher: Logan Webb 6-6, 3.13 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 5-4, 3.97 ERA
Giants vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Giants vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today:
- Heliot Ramos has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 34 games (+33.00 Units / 97% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+10.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Logan Webb has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 10 games (+10.45 Units / 80% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+3.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 70 games (+27.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.14 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+3.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 12 games at home (+1.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Giants are 42-45 against the Run Line (-6.95 Units / -6.05% ROI).
- 42-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -7.04% ROI
- 48-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.7 Units / 9.15% ROI
- 36-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.15 Units / -17.81% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 39-45 against the Run Line (-6.2 Units / -6.41% ROI).
- 47-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.5 Units / -8.62% ROI
- 29-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.4 Units / -28.77% ROI
- 51-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.15 Units / 20.56% ROI
Braves vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler (SF) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mike Yastrzemski (SF) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Braves vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler (SF) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jarred Kelenic (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jorge Soler (SF) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Logan Webb (SF) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (79/126) against Logan Webb in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (85/297) against Logan Webb on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (475/761) against Logan Webb since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Webb has thrown his changeup 26% of the time (119/460) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (362/816) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (574/1,417) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has an ERA of 7.14 (29.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.66 — second Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 52% of the time (526/1,016) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.