A loaded NFL Sunday in Week 6 concludes with the Sunday Night Football matchup between the 1-4 New York Giants and the Buffalo Bills, and we have you covered with our top Giants vs. Bills predictions based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
It's been a tale of two seasons for the New York Giants. Despite winning their first playoff game in 11 seasons last year, the Giants' 1-4 start suggests they're probably more likely to secure the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft than make a return to the postseason.
The Buffalo Bills had their best chance to win the AFC, per ESPN FPI, after a 48-20 running over of the Miami Dolphins in Week 4, but Buffalo was humbled with a 25-20 loss in London by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.
As part of our NFL predictions for Week 6, here is our best Giants vs. Bills prediction for Sunday Night Football, and don& #39;t miss our Josh Allen player props and Giants vs. Bills player props (SNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Giants vs. Bills prediction: Sunday Night Football
The Buffalo defensive injury report is extensive, as the team was already without cornerbacks Tre'Davious White and Christian Benford, while defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Shaq Lawson also missed the Jacksonville game. In that contest, the Bills may have suffered the biggest loss of all, as Pro Bowl linebacker Matt Milano suffered a significant leg injury, and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones was injured as well (Jones has 2.5 sacks and leads all Bills DL with a 26.9% pass rush win rate).
With Von Miller likely still on somewhat of a snap count, Buffalo's defensive depth will be tested, but the Giants are one of the few teams in the league that cannot take advantage of those weaknesses.
New York's offense has been historically bad through five games, as it has not scored an offensive touchdown in the first half of any game and has just one total touchdown on 46 possessions outside of its historic comeback win against the Arizona Cardinals.
The offensive line is a major issue, and the Giants could again be without their best offensive lineman, Andrew Thomas.
Additionally, Daniel Jones is out this weekend. For as bad as he's been, he likely still gives the Giants the best chance to score points, so his absence will only help this pick.
The most telling statistic is when the Giants played Seattle, as the Seahawks totaled 11 sacks, their most ever in a game in franchise history.
For all of Buffalo's defensive injuries, it still pressured Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence on 22 dropbacks (the second-most of his career) and sacked him five times, which tied Lawrence's career-high.
Buffalo's run defense should also take a massive hit in the coming weeks without Milano roaming sideline to sideline. Still, per Sharp Football Analysis contributor Rich Hribar, the Bills allow the fifth-fewest yards before contact (0.87) to running backs this season, which is already an issue for an offensive line that cannot create any running lanes.
Even if Bills quarterback Josh Allen reverts to his turnover-prone self, the Giants only managed 16 points against the Dolphins after a plus-3 turnover margin.
To make this a confident five-star play, we must also be sure the Giants defense will come to play. New York loves to blitz under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, even though just 3.3% of their blitzes have been sacks (fifth-worst). Look for Martindale to use a similar blueprint that made the Jaguars defense so successful against Allen, blitzing him on 12 of 37 dropbacks, while Allen went just 4-of-11 for 41 yards on those dropbacks.
Brenden Schaeffer's Giants vs. Bills parlay targets the Under in this lopsided SNF matchup.
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Giants vs. Bills best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| 44.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 45 | 45 |
| Under (-110) | Under (-105) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
As Under backers, the best value is offered at Caesars and bet365, which are the only best sports betting sites with a total as high as 45. We would play this number down to 44.5 but would not be willing to pay more than the standard price of -110.
Take advantage of the 45s out there now, as the line would likely drop even further if any of Daniel Jones, Andrew Thomas, or Saquon Barkley are ruled out for the Giants.
Giants vs. Bills odds for Sunday Night Football
Giants vs. Bills odds analysis
The lookahead total for this game was as high as 48 at various sportsbooks but has come down considerably with the news that Jones' neck injury may keep him out of this contest. The line opened at 45.5 at FanDuel, but even that was not low enough for Under backers, who brought the line down another point early this week.
The combination of sharp play on the Under and injury news are likely the biggest reasons this line has plummeted, as the early betting splits are 3/1 in favor of the Over.
All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with a point spread of Buffalo -14. Four of the five major sportsbooks (FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365) had reached as high as Bills -14.5 on Sunday night, but Giants backers brought the line down to the key number of -14.
The Bills have attracted 75% of the early point spread wagers, as New York is 0-6 ATS in its last six games.
Sunday Night Football game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 48 degrees, 52% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph NNE
Giants-Bills prediction made 10/11/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET
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