Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction, Picks & Odds, 9-28: Week 5

In the only AP top-four matchup of the season to date, the Alabama Crimson Tide host the Georgia Bulldogs in a rare regular-season meeting between the two SEC powerhouses.

• These two teams have combined for three of the last four national championships
• This is the fourth consecutive meeting in which Georgia is favored over Alabama
• Jalen Milroe and Carson Beck are two of the top six players on the Heisman Trophy odds lists

As part of our college football Week 5 predictions, our Georgia vs. Alabama prediction expects the Bulldogs to cover despite the line moving away from them.

We took an even deeper dive into this game with our Georgia vs. Alabama player prop bets and Jalen Milroe player prop bets.

Best Georgia vs. Alabama picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Georgia -1.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Alabama ???
• Player prop pick: Jalen Milroe Over 201.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ????

Georgia vs. Alabama against the spread prediction: Week 5

Georgia vs. Alabama opening odds:

• Georgia: -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Alabama: +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

This line opened under a field goal at all of our best sports betting sites, and not only has the line moved in Alabama's favor at many this week, but it is also down from -4.5 from the summer looakhead line. Nonetheless, I am happy to back Georgia at the lower number and would play the favorites at anything lower than -3.

The last we saw both of these teams (they each had byes last week), Georgia barely squeaked by with a one-point win over Kentucky, while Alabama handed Wisconsin its worst home loss (42-10) since 2008.

However, the Bulldogs are still road favorites against the Crimson Tide, which has meaning, as Alabama has not been an underdog in any of its previous 113 home games. That has the public drooling over its moneyline odds in the latest college football Week 5 public betting trends.

Alabama is the 72nd top-five team to be a home underdog since 1990, and only 28 of the previous 71 covered the spread, while just 25.4% of them won outright. In addition, favorites have covered at a 57% clip in all ranked vs. ranked matchups since 2020.

After Georgia walloped Clemson 34-3 in Week 1, many undermined what the victory meant, especially since the Tigers were coming off a disappointing 9-4 season relative to preseason expectations.

Since that game, Clemson has averaged 62.5 points per game, 617.5 total yards, 269.0 rushing yards, and held its opponents to 27.5 points per game. Clemson has a plus-70 point differential in that span, and its 125 points scored are its second-most in a two-game span since 1936.

Thus, though many have jumped off Georgia's bandwagon for an uninspiring win over Kentucky as a 21.5-point favorite, the fact remains it was still the Bulldogs' 28th consecutive SEC win and 16th straight conference road win.

Pessimists will say Kentucky out-gained Georgia 284-262 two weeks ago. However, the optimistic spin is that Georgia's offensive line did not allow a sack, and that the Wildcats only reached the red zone once while not scoring any touchdowns and settling for four field goals.

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer is 12-2 all-time against top-25 opponents, but Georgia is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games under Kirby Smart against ranked opponents, and it covered the spread in two of its last three games off a bye.

I don't mind paying more than the standard -110 juice at BetMGM, as it is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a spread less than -2. A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Georgia vs. Alabama prop pick for Week 5

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

We know that DeBoer loves his quarterbacks throwing deep, back to his days of letting Michael Penix Jr. air it out at Washington. Now DeBoer may have the best deep-passing quarterback in the country in Milroe.

Milroe's 52% completion percentage on passes of 20-plus yards was third-best in the country last year behind Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and national championship winner JJ McCarthy. In addition, Milroe had a 14-1 TD-INT ratio on passes 20-plus air yards.

I expect Alabama's offense to be able to move the ball, especially since Milroe became the fifth quarterback since 2008 with two or more passing touchdowns and multiple rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games after his incredible performance at Wisconsin. If Georgia's stout front is shutting down Alabama's physical running game, look for Milroe to take plenty of shots downfield.

I would not put anyone off waiting to see if a longest completion O/U prop becomes available, as that might be the more profitable way to back Milroe in this matchup. However, there is good value with this line, as Caesars has Milroe's O/U for passing yards set four yards higher at 205.5.

If you're looking for other ways to bet this game, our SEC predictions feature a player prop on one of Milroe's top targets, who is also featured in our Week 5 college football expert picks.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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Georgia vs. Alabama odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Georgia vs. Alabama game info

• When: Saturday, Sept. 28
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.
• How to watch: ABC, ESPN+
• Weather: 72 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NW
• Favorite: Georgia (-125 via BetMGM)

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