The main card at UFC 300 features a clash between lightweight contender Justin Gaethje and ex-featherweight king Max Holloway at 155 pounds for the promotion's BMF crown, and we have our Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction based on the odds from our best UFC betting sites.
Returning to the Octagon after a year, Justin Gaethje is set to clash with former featherweight champion Max Holloway in a highly anticipated matchup on the main card of UFC 300 on Saturday.
The last time we saw Gaethje, he knocked out Dustin Poirier via a vicious head kick following a decision victory against Rafael Fiziev. The former interim lightweight champion welcomes Holloway back to the division in a BMF title clash. Gaethje has a promotional record of 8-4, including six knockouts.
Like his dance partner, Holloway is coming off a pair of 2023 victories. He earned a decision over Arnold Allen last Apri l before retiring Chan Sung Jung by KO this past August. The longtime featherweight kingpin last competed at lightweight five years ago at UFC 236, losing an interim title bout to Dustin Poirier by unanimous decision.
We've been tracking the UFC 300 odds all week. Gaethje opened as a -160 favorite and Holloway a +120 underdog, and betting lines across our best sports betting sites have held relatively steady ever since. DraftKings lists the bruisers at -162 and +136, less than 48 hours from the UFC's milestone event at T-Mobile Arena.
To accompany our Pereira vs. Hill prediction, here is our Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction for UFC 300 (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Gaethje vs. Holloway prediction for UFC 300
In a battle of strikers who average over seven significant strikes landed per minute, these two will be slinging leather early and often. As Poirier proved back in 2019, I expect Gaethje to remind Holloway the zingers land much differently one weight class up.
Indeed, Holloway was rocked on several occasions during his date with Poirier, and while his volume striking has earned him a Hall of Fame-worthy resume, he lacks the pop in his punches to keep Gaethje honest, much less on the back foot. Several of Holloway's past foes – Alexander Volkanovski chief among them – have also seen success in attacking his legs, and with Gaethje boasting hellacious low kicks of his own, I expect the latter to make his edge in power known, chop away at Holloway's legs to limit his mobility, and eventually hand the former featherweight champ his first loss via strikes.
Caesars is offering top value across our best sports betting apps for a straight-up Gaethje win at -155, with BetMGM and DraftKings trailing at -159 and -162, respectively. Given Gaethje's 20 career knockouts and edge in raw power, a prop on a 21st stoppage victory is especially compelling, wi th DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 all listing a Gaethje KO/TKO at a solid +150.
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Gaethje vs. Holloway tale of the tape
| Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Age | 32 |
| 5'11″ | Height | 5'11″ |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| 70″ | Reach | 69″ |
| 25-4-0 | Record | 25-7-0 |
Gaethje vs. Holloway moneyline odds
| Fighter | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaethje | -162 | -178 | -159 | -155 | -163 |
| Holloway | +136 | +138 | +130 | +130 | +137 |
Notwithstanding their respective natural weight classes, Gaethje and Holloway have traded zingers with elite competition throughout their UFC stints. This explains why the lines are this close and have barely varied ahead of fight night.
Whether you're banking on more ultraviolence from Gaethje or an upset for the former featherweight king, you'll find solid bang for your buck with any of our best sportsbooks. A victory for the career lightweight yields respectable value across the board, with the best line the -155 at Caesars, while the lines on a Holloway upset vary from a respectable +130 to +138 at FanDuel.
Gaethje vs. Holloway fight info
- When: Saturday, April 13 with early prelims at 6 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m.
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nev.
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+ (early prelims, prelims), Pay-per- view (main card)
Gaethje-Holloway pick made Friday at 12:06 a.m. ET
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