Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ’em.
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC West
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC North
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC South
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC East
- Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: NFC South
Check out our NFL Futures Betting Guide >>
| Team | Expected Points For | Expected Points Allowed | Pythagorean Win Total | Vegas Win Total |
| Dallas Cowboys | 437 | 391.5 | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 407.75 | 377.25 | 9.3 | 9.5 |
| Washington Commanders | 371.25 | 388.75 | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| New York Giants | 355.5 | 400.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 |
Dallas Cowboys
- The highest-scoring team from 2021 comes into 2022 with high expectations. On paper, a top n PFF graded offensive line with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Zeke Elliot should be poised for another top 5 offensive season.'
- Vegas expects this team to take a small step back, likely from the loss of Amari Cooper. Dallas is expected to finish with 437 points; this number is top 7 across the league and 4th highest in the NFC.'
- The Cowboys’ defensive unit was a top 10 in 2021, allowing 358 points, the 7th fewest.' The loss of Randy Gregory is expected to have a significant impact, given that the Cowboys are projected to be a very average defense, allowing 391.5 points, the 17th most.'