The Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1) visit University Stadium to take on the New Mexico Lobos (0-3) on Sep. 21 in Albuquerque, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30pm EDT.
Fresno St is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-105).
The Fresno State vs. New Mexico Over/Under is 61.5 total points.
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Fresno State vs New Mexico Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 86.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno St and New Mexico, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Fresno State vs New Mexico Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 82.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Fresno State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.55 Units / 4% ROI)
New Mexico Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- New Mexico has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- New Mexico have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 12 games (+4.40 Units / 36% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Fresno State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Fresno State Player Prop Bets Today
- Malik Sherrod has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jalen Moss has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Mikey Keene has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Elijah Gilliam has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Mac Dalena has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for New Mexico players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best New Mexico Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Devon Dampier has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Devon Dampier has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Fresno St is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Fresno State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Fresno State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Fresno State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- New Mexico is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -100% ROI
- New Mexico is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
- New Mexico is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Fresno State is 12-4 (.667) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .508
Fresno State is 7-1 (.700) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .396
Fresno State is 10-1 (.588) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2022 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
Fresno State is 7-4 (.636) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .418
New Mexico is 1-10 (.091) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .446
New Mexico is 1-14 (.067) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .447
New Mexico is 2-16 (.105) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .394
New Mexico is 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .418
New Mexico’s RBs has 0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 0.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-best among NonP5 defenses.
New Mexico’s RBs has 2 rushing touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS RBs. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.