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The Paris 2024 hosts will open their Olympic women's basketball slate on Monday, as France is favored by 11.5 points over Canada across our best sports betting sites ahead of their 11:15 a.m. tipoff from Stade Pierre Mauroy in Lille, France.
Neither team is among the favorites by the women's Olympic basketball odds, but our France vs. Canada prediction expects a closer game than our best sportsbooks do given the WNBA talent on hand for Monday's underdogs.
France vs. Canada predictions for Monday
France vs. Canada odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Canada +11.5 (-115) ????
- Under 142.5 (-110) ???
- Bridget Carleton Over 13.5 points (+100) ???
Both of these teams are dealing as relative long shots to win this tournament, so why are the French such overwhelming favorites to win this opening matchup?
Home-court advantage only goes so far when the talent gap is so narrow. Sure, France features a strong 1-2 punch with Gabby Williams and Marine Johannes – both of whom have experience on this stage – but Canada features four active WNBA players in Laeticia Amihere, Bridget Carleton, Aaliyah Edwards, and Kia Nurse.
There's a reason the Canadians rank fifth in the latest world rankings, two spots ahead of France. I'm frankly surprised to see such a large point spread for this matchup, and I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset (+500).
Odds: -115 | Implied probability: 53.49%
While I like Canada's chances to keep things close – or even win outright – I do expect France's defense to stand tall in this matchup.
Williams is one of the bes t defensive players in this entire tournament, having earned second-team All-Defensive Team honors two years ago for the Seattle Storm. She and Johannes form one of the best defensive duos in the field, which we saw on full display in three qualifying games back in February.
Conversely, the Canadian roster is still finding its rhythm with many of its key players joining the roster recently after fulfulling their WNBA obligations. That could lead to a slower start offensively and help the final score sneak below this total.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
As the Canadian roster develops its chemistry on the court, I'm expecting coach Victor Lapena to lean heavily on his best scorer in Carleton to assume a larger role offensively.
The Minnesota Lynx forward led all players with 30.3 minutes per game in six qualifying contests, averaging 12.5 points despite shooting j ust 33.3% from the floor. She scored 18 or more in three of those six games, including a 19-point effort in the final qualifying match against Japan.
Carleton can score the rock, and if she sees anywhere close to the volume she saw in qualifying, she should clear this total with ease.
Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%
France vs. Canada odds & game info
| France | Canada | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -700 | +500 |
| Spread | -11.5 (-105) | +11.5 (-115) |
| Over/Under | Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110) |
- When: Monday, July 29
- Tip-off: 11:15 a.m. ET
- Where: Stade Pierre Mauroy (Lille, France)
- How to watch: CBC, Peacock
- Favorite: France -11.5 (-105)
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