The Florida Gators (1-2) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2) on Sep. 21 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Florida is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).
The Florida vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 62.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Florida vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 66.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI).
- Florida is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- Florida is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Florida is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -100% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Florida is 3-8 (.273) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .407
Florida is 6-12 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .511
Florida is 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .325
Florida is 2-7 (.222) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .438
Mississippi State is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .453
Mississippi State is 2-8 (.143) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .346
Mississippi State is winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .355
Mississippi State is 2-7 (.222) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .497
Mississippi State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.5% of 437 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has 2.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 1.7 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-worst among SEC defenses.