Through 10 weeks of NFL regular season action, underdogs and unders have been a profitable bet. Dogs are 85-62 ATS (58%), led by “sweet spot” dogs +3.5 or more 58-31 ATS (65%). Meanwhile, unders are 88-62 (59%). Divisional unders are 21-16 (66%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more are 26-8 (76%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine a handful of Week 11 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors…
Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys (6-3) just fell to the Packers 31-28 in overtime, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Vikings (8-1) have won seven straight and just took down the Bills 33-30, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. We've seen the Cowboys move up to a 1-point road favorite. The public is shocked and thinks the wrong team is favored, as they're rushing to the window to back the trendy dog Vikings. However, this line has remained frozen at Cowboys -1. It feels as though the books are begging you to grab Minnesota, which feels fishy. Typically, when it looks too good to be true it usually is. Dallas has value as a contrarian favorite, receiving only 31% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. It appears as though pros are fading the trendy dog Vikings.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45) at Indianapolis Colts
The Eagles (8-1) just lost their first game of the season, falling to the Commanders 32-21 and losing outright as 11-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Colts (4-5-1) just won their first game under new coach Jeff Saturday, beating the Raiders 25-20 and winning outright as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with the Eagles listed as high as a 10-point road favorite. We've seen this line fall all the way down to Eagles -6.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the Colts. Dogs with severe line moves of 1.5-point or more in their favor are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season. Indianapolis is only receiving 47% of bets but 79% of money, a massive sharp money discrepancy in their favor. The Colts also have a rest vs tired advantage as the Eagles are on a short week having just played on Monday night. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 43.5 to 45.