Week 1 of the NFL Regular Season is finally here. Historically, Week 1 has been a great time to take the points and get down on underdogs. Last season, underdogs went 12-4 ATS in Week 1. Since 2016, Week 1 underdogs have gone 53-39 ATS (58%). A $100 bettor taking every Week 1 dog would have profited nearly $1,200 over that time span. Week 1 divisional dogs have been especially profitable, going 22-8 ATS (73%) since 2016.
Why have dogs been such a smart bet in the opening week of play? A lot of it has to do with public perception and recency bias. The NFL is the most heavily bet sport by far and the public loves backing favorites because, after all, they're the “better” team. But remember, we aren't worried about who wins. We just care about covering the number. Dogs are oftentimes undervalued, especially when it comes to backing “gross” dogs who the public thinks have no shot at covering.
With this betting system in mind, let's discuss five games that wiseguys are targeting in Week 1.