Our FIU-Sam Houston prediction based on the best college football odds from the best sports betting sites questions how low you can go with two bottom-barrel offenses.
One of the FIU Panthers (3-4, 0-4 CUSA) or Sam Houston Bearkats (0-6, 0-3 CUSA) will get off the schneid by recording its first conference win of the year Wednesday night in Conference USA action.
We aren't expecting a barnburner Wednesday as both offenses rank near the bottom of offensive efficiency in the FBS. The Bearkats have failed to score a touchdown in two of their six games while the Panthers have been held to fewer than 20 points in five of their seven outings.
Here is our best FIU-Sam Houston prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
FIU vs. Sam Houston prediction
If the metrics are to be trusted, this battle between FIU and Sam Houston could be the worst offensive matchup of the year in college football. Sam Houston is ranked 130th out of 133 FBS teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the Football Power Index efficiency metrics, and is the higher-ranked of the two programs.
Despite averaging a more standard 20.7 points per game on the season (105th in FBS), FIU sits at 132nd out of 133 FBS teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. Sam Houston has faced a slightly tougher schedule due to its non-conference slate, but the team's struggling offense has averaged just 11.2 points per game.
Sam Houston's offense may put together a couple of touchdown drives due to the relative weakness of FIU's defense (109th in adjusted defensive efficiency). Still, Sam Houston should be able to limit FIU from contributing much to this total.
The Bearkats rank 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency across FBS. They've limited several prominent teams to modest scoring totals, including Air Force's 14th-ranked unit in adjusted offensive efficiency. Sam Houston is 2-4 to the Under in 2023, while FIU has recorded five Unders in seven outings.
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FIU vs. Sam Houston best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| Under 39.5 | Under 40.5 | n/a | Under 40.5 | Under 39.5 |
| -110 | -115 | n/a | -110 | -110 |
DraftKings and bet365 are shops to avoid for this Under wager at current odds, as both list the total at 39.5. You gain an extra point of cushion and get the Under at 40.5 through FanDuel or Caesars.
Caesars offers the more favorable odds on the Under between the two at -110. You'll pay -115 to take the Under at FanDuel.
FIU vs. Sam Houston odds
FIU vs. Sam Houston odds analysis
Sam Houston opened as a 6-point favorite, and that number has dropped slightly to between -5 and -5.5 through our best sportsbooks. Currently, 58% of wagers have come in on the Bearkats.
The total opened at 39.5 and has remained there at some of our best sports betting sites while rising to 40.5 at others. Over 55% of the wagers have come in on the Over.
FIU vs. Sam Houston game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX
- How to watch: CBS Sports Network
- Weather: 78 Degrees, 10 mph winds, 0% Precipitation
FIU-Sam Houston prediction made Monday at 4 p.m. ET.
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