:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72137069/1476797586.0.jpg "FAU-San Diego State prediction: Pick for over/under, point total in Final Four of 2023 NCAA Tournament")
The No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls and the No. 5 San Diego State in each team's first Final Four in tournament history. Two unexpected underdogs head into the game with the total set at 132 at DraftKings Sportsbook. SDSU enters as a 2-point favorite. Here's how we're betting on the over/under.
No. 9 FAU vs. No. 5 San Diego State: Over/Under pick
FAU is 2-2 against the point total this tournament, hitting the under against Memphis and Tennessee and hitting the over against Kansas State and Fairleigh Dickinson. They were just barely .500 on the over in the regular season and conference tournament. The Owls went 16-15-1 against the total ahead of the NCAA Tournament, and have gone 2-5 against the total since the end of the regular season.
San Diego State has hit the under in every single tournament game. Their suffocating defense and middling offense combine to be an under bettors dream. In fact, the Aztecs have not hit the over in a game since February 11. They went 14-18 against the total in the regular season and conference tournament.
SDSU has averaged 66.5 points this tournament and held opponents to an average of 57.3 points. FAU has averaged 71.3 points per game this tournament and held opponents to 66.5 points.
Pick: Under 132
This is a perfect recipe for the under. FAU relies heavily on three-point shots, ranking 13th in the nation in three-pointers per game, while SDSU has an excellent perimeter defense and ranks third in the nation in three-point percentage defense. SDSU has not been particularly impressive on the offensive side of the ball, so we can expect a final score of around 66-61.