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It's a “Battle of the Birds” as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football, culminating the Week 2 NFL slate. And as part of our Week 2 NFL predictions, we have you covered with my Falcons vs. Eagles prediction.
Oddsmakers were impressed with Philadelphia's performance in Brazil in its 34-29 victory over the Green Bay Packers. The Eagles are as high as a touchdown favorite based on the Monday Night Football odds.
It took no time for Eagles running back Saquon Barkley to adapt to life on his new team, and he looks worth every penny of his three-year $37.75M deal he signed in the offseason after exploding for 132 total yards and three touchdowns last week.
However, our Monday Night Football player prop prediction involves Falcons signal-caller Kirk Cousins, who we expect to overcome his primetime struggles in his career.
Best Falcons vs. Eagles picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Spread pick: Falcons +7 (-125 via BetMGM) vs. Eagles ???
- Player prop: Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+148 via FanDuel) ???
Falcons vs. Eagles spread prediction: Monday Night Football
There is no denying Cousins' struggles in primetime. He's 17-23-1 in his career in primetime games, including a 5-15-1 SU record and 8-13 ATS record in primetime games as an underdog.
But as long as one of our best sports betting sites, like BetMGM, offers the Falcons plus a touchdown, I will grab Atlanta at that number.
Cousins faced a ferocious Steelers pass rush led by Defensive Player of the Year odds frontrunner T.J. Watt last week. He was sacked twice an d hit on seven other dropbacks.
Conversely, Philadelphia generated the lowest pressure rate among all 32 teams in Week 1, so Cousins should have more opportunities to work through his progressions and make plays in the passing game.
Perhaps we should not have been surprised by Cousins' lackluster performance last week, given that it was his first game back from a torn Achilles in Week 9 last year. Before the injury, Cousins' 18 touchdown passes through Weeks 1-8 were tied for first among all quarterbacks, and he ranked second in passing yards per game (291.4) and fifth in completion percentage (70%).
If he is even marginally better than last week (155 yards passing, 32.0 QBR), it should go a long way to improve Atlanta's chances of covering.
Atlanta's bend-but-don't-break defense
The Falcons' offense is rightfully getting much blame for last week's loss, but that should not understate how solid their defense was. The Steelers only averaged 4.1 yards per play and 3.3 yards per carry and were 0-for-2 in the red zone.
All things considered, Atlanta should be encouraged that it was outgained by 44 yards in a game in which it ran 16 fewer plays and possessed the ball for 11 fewer minutes.
Those looking to go the alternate spread route through other sportsbooks to get the Falcons +7 will pay a minimum price of -131 (at DraftKings), so the best value is at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.
Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Eagles vs. Falcons player prop
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Even in a terrible game, Cousins managed one touchdown pass in the first half last week and now faces an Eagles secondary that allowed the seventh-most passing yards and ranked in the bottom three in CPOE last year.
Vic Fangio was brought in as defensive coordinator to fix an Eagles defense that ranked in the bottom three in Total QBR allowed and TD-INT ratio (35-9). And while the Eagles held Jordan Love to a 25.8 QBR and 50% completion percentage in Week 1, they still allowed two touchdowns through the air.
Philadelphia has allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns in four of the last six games dating back to last season, but it also faced Tyrod Taylor twice and Drew Lock once in that span.
Cousins has accomplished much more in his career than Taylor and Lock, and his implied probability of throwing two-plus touchdowns is as high as 42.55% based on BetMGM's and DraftKings' +135 odds.
I am making my $10 wager at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would return $14.80 in profits.
Best odds: +148 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 40.32%
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Falcons vs. Eagles odds
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Monday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Falcons vs. Eagles
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 63 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 8 mph winds NE
- Favorite: Eagles (-300 via BetMGM)
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