The Atlanta Falcons (3-3) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) on Oct. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Tampa.
The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this Week 7 matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Falcons vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 38.5 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this Week 7 game with 64.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Falcons and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this Week 7 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Chris Godwin has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- Russell Gage has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- Chris Godwin has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 17 games (+1.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons went 1-5 (-4.4 Units / -67.69% ROI).
- Falcons are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -3.16% ROI
- Falcons are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
- Falcons are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers went 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 47.66% ROI
- Buccaneers are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Buccaneers are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons are 1-5 (.167) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .629.
The Falcons were winless (0-5) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .429.
The Falcons are 1-5 (.167) after a road win since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .545.
The Falcons are 1-7 (.125) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .425.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers are undefeated (9-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .655.
The Buccaneers are undefeated (5-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .602.
The Buccaneers are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .570.
The Buccaneers are 12-1 (.923) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .610.