How. Time. Flies! It seems like only yesterday I was taking a brief moment away from the design of the weekly VSiN Pro Matchups Guide and annual sport-specific betting guides to make my once-a-year appearance as a VSiN writer. But nearly one year removed from Aaron Donald’s Super Bowl 56 MVP award – just kidding, but seriously, is anyone else besides me still a little bitter about having to shred that ticket? – here we are on the doorstep of the big game and my fifth annual prop-a-palooza. Make no mistake, this 2,000-word dump of sports betting knowledge will not garner a Pulitzer Prize. It just might, however, give my handicapping mentor VSiN editor Steve Makinen a little run for his money and add a few shekels to your pocket.
Without further ado, let’s look at what’s in store for Super Bowl 57.
The props I’ve outlined over the last four years have a record of 41-13 (75.9%, 21.7 units). After analyzing nearly 300 props for every Super Bowl since 2002, I’ve found 17 that fit my minimum exceptional rating of 500. What does ‘minimum exceptional rating’ mean? Let me break it down:
Step 1. Using an odds converter, I determine the implied odds of a prop based on the percentage of time the outcome has been correct or incorrect.
Step 2. I then determine the difference in the odds listed for the prop in the sportsbook and the implied odds calculated in Step 1.
For example:
As you review these 17 props, keep a couple of things in mind:
- For each prop, I’ve labeled which sportsbook the odds came from. Most of these props are available at several books, but I chose the odds that provided the best value.
- These odds might have changed by the time you read this. As is the case for any game, event or prop, shop around to get the best price.
- Some books might write props a bit differently from what I’ve captured, but they are the same in the end. For example, one book might write: “What will be the first offensive play of the second half? Pass -110 or Run -110.” Another book might write: “Will the first play of the second half be a pass? Yes -110 or No -110.”
Finally, use the information in this article as an addition to your arsenal against the books this Super Bowl. Consider the tendencies of Kansas City and Philadelphia during the regular season and how these props might have played out had they been available all season long.
Expect the unexpected. Keep an open mind, and let the numbers, data and research be your guide.
Props With Exceptional Ratings
Prop:
Result: 3 games (14%) yes, 18 games (86%) no Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 600 yes 2023 Moneyline for Prop: 3000 yes at DraftKings My Rating: 2400
Prop:
Result: 2 games (10%) yes, 19 game (90%) no Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 950 yes 2023 Moneyline for Prop: 2500 yes at DraftKings My Rating: 1550
Prop:
Result: 20 games (95%) no, 1 game (5%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -2001 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -505 no at Circa My Rating: 1496
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -155 no at DraftKings My Rating: 795
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -160 no at Caesars My Rating: 790
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) yes, 2 games (10%) no Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 yes 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -210 yes at Caesars My Rating: 740
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -320 no at Westgate My Rating: 630
Prop:
Result: 3 games (86%) yes, 18 games (14%) no Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 600 yes 2023 Moneyline for Prop: 1200 yes at Westgate My Rating: 600
Prop:
Result: 4 games (19%) yes, 17 games (81%) no Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 425 yes 2023 Moneyline for Prop: 1000 yes at Circa My Rating: 575
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -375 no at BetMGM My Rating: 575
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -390 no at DraftKings My Rating: 560
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -400 no at DraftKings My Rating: 550
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -400 no at Caesars My Rating: 550
Prop:
Result: 18 games (86%) no, 3 games (14%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -600 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: 145 no at Caesars My Rating: 545
Prop:
Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no 2023 Moneyline for Prop: -450 no at DraftKings My Rating: 500