The East Carolina Pirates (2-1) visit Williams Stadium to take on the Liberty Flames (3-0) on Sep. 21 in Lynchburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EDT.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).
The East Carolina vs. Liberty Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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East Carolina vs Liberty Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 70.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both East Carolina and Liberty, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
East Carolina vs Liberty Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts East Carolina will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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East Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- East Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- East Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for East Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best East Carolina Player Prop Bets Today
- Rahjai Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Liberty Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Billy Lucas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Treon Sibley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
East Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
East Carolina is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- East Carolina is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -2.38% ROI
- East Carolina is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- East Carolina is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Liberty is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 5.24% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
- Liberty is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
East Carolina is 1-7 (.125) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .497
East Carolina is winless (0-8) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .391
East Carolina is winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .355
East Carolina is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .407
Liberty is undefeated (10-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .403
Liberty is undefeated (7-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .343
Liberty is undefeated (14-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .387
Liberty is 12-1 (.923) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .407
Liberty’s RBs has rushed for 3,033 yards on 510 carries (5.9 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-13th-best among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 3.0 YPC since the 2023 season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s RBs has rushed for 579 yards on 94 carries (6.2 YPC) this season — T-31st-best among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 1.8 YPC this season — best among NonP5 defenses.