Duke vs. North Carolina Odds, Picks, Predictions College Basketball: Can Tar Heels Keep Tourney Hopes Alive?

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North Carolina reached the national championship game a year ago. The Tar Heels may need a win Saturday to even sniff a spot in the bracket for this year's March Madness. Read on for our Duke vs. North Carolina college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

It's been the season from hell for preseason No. 1 North Carolina (19-11) as last year's runner-up to the national championship begins the weekend firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A home win in one of college basketball's most storied rivalries could change that for the better.

Duke (22-8) enters on a five-game winning streak but has struggled mightily in road environments this season.

Here is our best Duke vs. North Carolina college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale) .

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Duke vs. North Carolina pick

North Carolina has fallen woefully short of expectations this season after opening the campaign as the AP No. 1 team in the country. Overall, though, the Tar Heels have generally handled their business at home this season, posting a 12-2 outright record at the Dean Smith Center leading into Saturday's clash with Duke.

While UNC is just 7-7 against the spread in home games this season, that's a far more stable output than what the Blue Devils have achieved in road games. Duke has dropped four of its last six road games and is a paltry 3-6 as an away team on the year. Those struggles have extended to its performance against the spread as Duke sports a 2-7 ATS record in road games.

Though the disparity in the metrics between these two teams is slim, Duke does have the upper-hand according to KenPom, at No. 33 in the nation compared to UNC's No. 46 ranking. The Tar Heels are two spots higher in adjusted offensive efficiency and should have an advantage in dictating their top-100 adjusted tempo with the home crowd behind them.

Duke handled the first meeting of the season at home, 63-57. Though perhaps higher scoring, I expect a similar result Saturday as the home team pulls away in the final moments.

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Duke vs. North Carolina best odds

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
UNC -3.5	UNC -3.5	UNC -3.5	UNC -3.5	UNC -4
-110	-110	-115	-110	-110

The betting board is mostly in line for the point spread on this matchup, with DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars listing North Carolina at -3.5 with standard -110 odds. PointsBet is the odd duck, with the Tar Heels at -4 (-110). Duke bettors should flock to PointsBet for this wager, but for our purposes, it's the one spot to avoid if you want a favorable line.

I'm confident in UNC's ability to win this game and believe that free throws late will help seal the cover at the current number. But if this line progresses to -4.5, free throws may not be enough to seal it. At -4.5, this recommendation drops to three stars.