The Duke Blue Devils (3-0) visit Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-2) on Sep. 21 in Murfreesboro, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.
Duke is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Duke vs. Middle Tennessee Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Duke vs Middle Tennessee Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 84.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Middle Tenn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Duke vs Middle Tennessee Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Middle Tennessee will cover the spread with 77.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+4.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Middle Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Middle Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Duke players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Duke Player Prop Bets Today
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jaquez Moore has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Grayson Loftis has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Grayson Loftis has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Middle Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Middle Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.15 Units / 115% ROI)
- Holden Willis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Duke is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 22.63% ROI
- Duke is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -35.82% ROI
- Duke is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI
Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Middle Tenn State is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.25 Units / -100% ROI).
- Middle Tennessee is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Duke is 5-2 (.625) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .495
Duke is 8-5 (.615) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .407
Duke is 8-4 (.571) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2022 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .486
Duke is 9-3 (.643) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 36th-best in FBS; Average: .524
Middle Tennessee is winless (0-7) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .355
Middle Tennessee is winless (0-8) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .391
Middle Tennessee is winless (0-10) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .358
Middle Tennessee is 2-8 (.200) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-27th-worst in FBS; Average: .426
Middle Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 917 passing yards in 3 games (305.7 YPG) this season — 21st-best among FBS offenses. Duke’s defense has allowed just 134.3 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s WRs has gained 633 yards on 39 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 7.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.