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Our Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya prediction comes mere hours before the former defends his middleweight crown against the latter in a long-awaited grudge match that will close out Saturday's UFC 305 predictions and odds in Perth, Australia.
The pair were initially expected to meet during Adesanya's second reign as divisional king last year following Du Plessis' statement win over Robert Whittaker, only for an injury to keep Du Plessis from making the date.
Adesanya instead faced Sean Strickland and caught the short end of one of the greatest upsets in UFC history across our best sports betting sites, with Strickland then losing the belt to Du Plessis in a close split decision at UFC 297 this past January.
South Africa's Du Plessis now heads to Perth with a spotless UFC record of 7-0 and five promotional stoppages, while Adesanya boasts wins in all but t hree of his 16 Octagon showings.
Du Plessis vs. Adesanya prediction & best bet
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Adesanya moneyline (-110 via Betway) ????
- My best bet: Adesanya by decision (+200 via Betway) ???
Du Plessis vs. Adesanya fight analysis
Unlike last year's date with Strickland, Adesanya's fundamentals, footwork, and technique should be the difference in Saturday's main event.
While Du Plessis' striking is as awkward as it is dangerous, Adesanya should have an easier time making his reads and acting accordingly than he did against Strickland.
Rarely one to throw volume, Adesanya will have to remain on his bicycle, cut angles, and work his jab and low kicks from the outside against the oft-busier Du Plessis – who'll likely aim to pepper his attack with takedowns as he did in his dance with Strickland.
As the bout wears on, Adesanya's movement and feints should draw Du Plessis out and allow the ever-methodical challenger to open up with his combinations, after which Du Plessis' takedown attempts will grow more transparent and desperate.
Saturday's headliner won't set the world ablaze, but it should see Adesanya improve his 77% takedown defense and reclaim the UFC middleweight throne with another patented, cerebral showing against a most worthy adversary.
Adesanya's resume and lengthy first middleweight title reign have made him a slight favorite with most of our best sportsbooks ahead of fight night. The value on a straight-up Adesanya win is compelling across the board, but Betway gets the nod this week, listing the challenger and champion dead even at a compelling -110.
Prediction: Adesanya moneyline (-110 via Betway) | Imp lied probability: 52.38%
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Du Plessis vs. Adesanya best bet
Even with 16 knockouts in 24 career victories, Adesanya's championship bouts have often required the judges' participation, and I expect more of the same in his date with Du Plessis.
The ex-champ has gone the distance in seven of 11 and five of his last seven title fights, often preferring to pick his opponents apart from range instead of head-hunting. He'll need to produce that kind of showing against Du Plessis, who'll likely be the one pushing the pace and relying on striking and wrestling in equal measure.
Du Plessis, by comparison, is a prolific finisher who can go the full 25 if he needs to, having proven as much when he dethroned Strickland earlier this year. Given their clashing styles, Adesanya's methodical ways, and the stakes involved, I expect both men to show each other ample respect – at least for most of their contest – and use all five rounds to settle their score.
Luckily for bettors, the lines on another decision victory for Adesanya all offer excellent value as of early Saturday morning. While the competition is stiff, Betway is our book of choice for this week's best bet with an Adesanya win on points available at +200.
Best bet: Adesanya by decision (+200 via Betway) | Implied probability: 33.33%
Du Plessis vs. Adesanya odds
Odds via Betway as of Saturday.
| Du Plessis | Method of victory | Adesanya |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Win outright | -110 |
| +275 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +300 |
| +350 | Win by unanimous decision | +200 |
| +6600 | Draw | +6600 |
| Du Plessis | Adesanya | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 35 |
| 6'1″ | Height | 6'4″ |
| 185 | Weight | 184 |
| 76″ | Reach | 80″ |
| 21-2 | Record | 24-3 |
Du Plessis vs. Adesanya fight info
- When: Saturday, August 17 at 10 pm ET (main card)
- Where: RAC Arena (Perth, Australia)
- How to watch: PPV, ESPN+
- Favorite: Adesanya (-110 via Betway)
Du Plessis-Adesanya pick made Saturday at 12:10 a.m. ET.
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