Following a disastrous Week 18, Miami has the misfortune of playing in front of a raucous Kansas City crowd on Wild Card Weekend, and we offer our top Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction based on the best NFL odds.
In a winner-takes-the-division showdown between the Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in Week 18, it appeared Miami was poised to avoid disaster and finish as the AFC East's top seed. However, the Dolphins collapsed in the second half, and their punishment is a brutal Wild Card Weekend matchup.
If the Dolphins beat the Bills, the two teams would have run it back this weekend, once again playing in Miami as they did in Week 18. However, the Dolphins now travel to Kansas City and will have to contend with both the defending Super Bowl champions and the deafening Chiefs fans inside Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18 despite all of their key offensive skill-position players sitting out the contest. They'll enter this game rested and with the momentum.
Can the Dolphins win when it matters, or will the Chiefs inch one step closer to going back-to-back?
As part of our NFL Predictions for Wild Card Weekend, here is our best Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Chiefs predictions for Wild Card Weekend
It was the Mecole Hardman show in Week 18 with all of the Chiefs' starters resting for the playoffs. He racked up six catches on 11 targets for 77 receiving yards against the Chargers.
Now, it's entirely possible Hardman earned more looks with that impressive performance. But with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice set to return, Hardman making any sort of real impact is unlikely.
The projections are a bit all over the place for Hardman, as is the case with many involved in this game due to the uncertainty tied to the health of various Dolphins players. However, Hardman's average receiving yards projection is 10.85 across three models. If we run that number against bet365's -110 odds on Under 10.5 yards, we're getting a little better than 20% positive expected value on this bet.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is featuring Under 9.5 at -124. It opened at 10.5 with the Under at -120 and moved down a yard after the Under steamed to -132.
With both a projection showing +EV and a sharp book seeing action on the Under and moving the line, this looks like a good bet for Saturday's game.
One of my issues with making NFL bets early in the week is the lack of available markets, wh ich allows our best sports betting apps to be ultra-efficient with the markets they're offering. However, if you dig deep enough, you can find at least some value.
If we look at the full-game total for Dolphins vs. Chiefs, we see that all of our best sports betting sites are locked in on a total of 44, with standard -110 odds on both the Over and Under. However, we notice some small inefficiencies when we turn our attention to the first-half total.
Four of our five best sportsbooks are offering this market, and two – DraftKings and Caesars – offer -110 odds on Over 21.5 points. Comparatively, BetRivers prices its Over at -112 and bet365 has the Over juiced to -120. FanDuel is one point higher at 22.5.
However, it's the Pinnacle line that's caught my attention. Pinnacle has its first-half total set at 23, and though the Under is juiced to – 134, some of the betting action suggests we're getting decent value with this play.
Pinnacle opened with the Over priced at +109, and though it's lengthened somewhat to +115, there have been various points at which we've seen buyback on the Over.
Now, it's unknown whether that's because bettors thought the plus-money odds were simply too long or they identified value on Over 23 at those prices. However, we can use that as evidence that there's at least a price on a first-half total of 23 – 1.5 points higher than the one we're playing – that sharp bettors deem worthy of hitting the button on the Over.
I'm not betting this myself (anything below three stars is an indication of that) and will instead wait for player props to drop, but it's a decent bet for those looking to get in on the action early this week.
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| (-110) | (-110) | N/A | (-110) | (-120) |
As I mentioned in my Browns vs. Texans prediction, there's not as much value in odds shopping for these game-related markets as there is for player props. However, as we can see by our odds table above, two of our best live betting sites are offering either a higher total or pricing the Over at shorter odds than we're getting at DraftKings.
This reiterates the point that the further you dive – from moneyline, spread, and total bets, to half- and team-specific props, or all the way down to player props – the more inefficiencies you'll find in the markets. The benefit of the former is that they're available immediately, so if you're looking for early action, they're your best bet (pun intended, of course).
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds
Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds analysis
This line opened at Chiefs -3.5 and has remained there at all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos excluding a brief spell during which DraftKings moved Kansas City to a 4-point favorite. Early action on the spread is completely split.
As for the total, it's been moving aggressively in the early stages of the week. It opened anywhere from 44 to 45 and has bounced around throughout Monday, reaching a low of 42.5 and climbing back to 45 for brief spells. Sharp action has followed the same pattern , as Pinnacle featured a total of 43 for roughly 12 hours before the Over was smashed to -119.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: Peacock
- Weather: 9 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds
Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction made Monday at 3 p.m. ET.
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