Miami enters the playoffs following a disastrous Week 18 game only to play in front of a raucous Kansas City crowd on Wild Card Weekend, and we offer our top Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction based on the best NFL odds.
The Miami Dolphins weren't dealing with a full-blown win-and-in scenario in Week 18, but they really could have benefited from a victory.
If the Dolphins defeated the Buffalo Bills at home, the two teams would have run it right back in Miami on Wild Card Weekend. Instead, they now head to Kansas City to play in deafening Arrowhead Stadium against the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
To make matters worse, Miami carries absolutely no momentum into the playoffs fresh off its epic collapse.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs beat the Chargers in Los Angeles with a team almost entirely consisting of bench players. They enter t his playoff matchup as the defending champions and with all of their primary skill-position players getting an extra week of rest.
Will the Dolphins conclude their pitiful recent run with one final loss, or is this Chiefs team just too far removed from the one that won the Super Bowl last year?
Here is our best Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction for Wild Card Weekend
One of my issues with making NFL bets early in the week is the lack of available markets, which allows our best sports betting apps to be ultra-efficient with the markets they're offering. However, if you dig deep enough, you can find at least some value.
If we look at the full-game total for Dolphins vs. Chiefs, we see that all of our& nbsp;best sports betting sites are locked in on a total of 44, with standard -110 odds on both the Over and Under. However, we notice some small inefficiencies when we turn our attention to the first-half total.
Four of our five best sportsbooks are offering this market, and two – DraftKings and Caesars – offer -110 odds on Over 21.5 points. Comparatively, BetRivers prices its Over at -112 and bet365 has the Over juiced to -120. FanDuel is one point higher at 22.5.
However, it's the Pinnacle line that's caught my attention. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, has its first-half total set at 23, and though the Under is juiced to -134, some of the betting action suggests we're getting decent value with this play.
Pinnacle opened with the Over priced at +109, and though it's lengthened somewha t to +115, there have been various points at which we've seen buyback on the Over.
Now, it's unknown whether that's because bettors thought the plus-money odds were simply too long or they identified value on Over 23 at those prices. However, we can use that as evidence that there's at least a price on a first-half total of 23 – 1.5 points higher than the one we're playing – that sharp bettors deem worthy of hitting the button on the Over.
I'm not betting this myself (anything below three stars is an indication of that) and will instead wait for player props to drop, but it's a decent bet for those looking to get in on the action early this week.
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Visit our Google News p age and click “Follow” (?) for the latest odds, picks and news!
Dolphins vs. Chiefs best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| (-110) | (-110) | N/A | (-110) | (-120) |
As I mentioned in my Browns vs. Texans prediction, there's not as much value in odds shopping for these game-related markets as there is for player props. However, as we can see by our odds table above, two of our best live betting sites are offering either a higher total or pricing the Over at shorter odds than we're getting at DraftKings.
This reiterates the point that the further you dive – from moneyline, spread, and total bets, to half- and team-specific props, or all the way down to player props – the more inefficiencies you'll find in the markets. The benefit of the former is that they're available immediately, so if you're looking for early action, they're your best bet (pun intended, of course).
For the best price on this pick, be sure to use our exclusive DraftKings promo code or Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000!
Editor's note: Get ready for the launch of Vermont sports betting with our best Vermont sportsbook promos, and be sure to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds
Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds analysis
This line opened at Chiefs -3.5 and has remained there at all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos excluding a brief spell during which DraftKings moved Kansas City to a 4-point favorite. Early action on the spread is completely split.
As for the total, it's been moving aggressively in the early stages of the week. It opened anywhere from 44 to 45 and has bounced around throughout Monday, reaching a low of 42.5 and climbing back to 45 for brief spells. Sharp action has followe d the same pattern, as Pinnacle featured a total of 43 for roughly 12 hours before the Over was smashed to -119.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: Peacock
- Weather: 9 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 15-mph winds
Dolphins vs. Chiefs prediction made Monday at 3 p.m. ET.
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)