It's common knowledge now that the Miami Dolphins should have taken Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft over Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, who had been wildly inconsistent in his first two seasons. However, Tagovailoa is now playing for an offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel and coming off a career day as the Dolphins are now 2-0. McDaniel is now the +600 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to win NFL Coach of the Year, and Tua made a huge move up the MVP odds board.
Miami looked dead in the water Sunday trailing in Baltimore 35-14 in the fourth quarter but rallied for a stunning 42-38 victory on a Tagovailoa touchdown pass to Jaylen Waddle with 14 seconds left. Tagovailoa was 36-for-50 for 469 yards and six TDs (four in the fourth quarter). Those touchdowns tied Dan Marino and Bob Griese for most in franchise history. Tua also became the second-youngest player since 1950 to throw for at least 450 passing yards and six TDs, behind only Patrick Mahomes. Miami's odds to win Super Bowl 57 dropped from +4000 to +2500.
“Numbers like Tua had against the Ravens don't come around that often,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “It was a very impressive performance, and any time you put up those types of stats you're going to get noticed. We already had big liability on him for MVP, so it makes sense his odds are a big mover. The player markets like MVP are going to have more drastic odds shifts than Super Bowl futures because there's far less money in the pool. Miami's defense still gave up 38 points and the AFC is flat-out loaded, but if they put up another strong performance up this week their Super Bowl odds will continue to get lower.”
Tagovailoa's NFL MVP odds were changed from +4000 to +1800 following Week 2, now tied for the seventh-lowest odds with Tom Brady. Tagovailoa was +5000 to start the season after opening all the way up at +17500.