The Los Angeles Dodgers (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-155) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Dodgers are 55-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-43 ATS.

Dodgers vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

• Dodgers starting pitcher: Landon Knack 1-2, 2.86 ERA
• Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 10-4, 3.52 ERA

Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:

• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+13.75 Units / 92% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+12.45 Units / 79% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Walks Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 25 games at home (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)

Dodgers Best Bets Today:

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 away games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 away games (+2.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 away games (+2.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.25 Units / 10% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 77 games (+23.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 75 games (+22.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 74 games (+19.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 39 games at home (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 75 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI)

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Dodgers are 46-47 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -6.73% ROI).

• 55-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -7.36% ROI
• 48-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.44% ROI
• 44-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.7 Units / -8.48% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 49-43 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 4.91% ROI).

• 60-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.9 Units / 8.53% ROI
• 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -9.79% ROI
• 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 0.74% ROI

Phillies vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Dodgers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Dodgers RBI Prop Bets Today

Phillies vs Dodgers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 0% (0/11) against Landon Knack this month (1 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Landon Knack has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 11 innings — Hunter Gaddis has the longest active streak at 22.

Hitters have swung at 39% of Landon Knack’s pitches (33/85) this month (1 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 48% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (6/41) against Landon Knack this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .232 (734 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have chased 145 of Aaron Nola’s 298 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 49%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (105/310) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (439/1,374) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 165 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

  
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