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Round one – Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies took the opener of a showdown of the National League's two best teams as they blew out the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday. The two powerhouses clash against Wednesday as we offer our best Dodgers vs. Phillies player prop predictions based on MLB odds from the best sports betting sites.
The Phillies are the betting favorites for the second consecutive game in this series as the home team at Citizens Bank Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. That means the Dodgers are underdogs for just the seventh time this season, having gone 2-4 in their previous six in that role.
The Phillies are the fifth-most profitable moneyline team this season, earning their backers +8.3 units for those that have tailed them in every game, including last night's 10-1 victory.
Dodgers vs. Phillies player props
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Gavin Stone Under 4.5 strikeouts (-115 via BetMGM) ???
- Cristopher Sanchez to record a win (+170 via bet365) ???
- Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 total bases (-105 via FanDuel) ????
Dodgers vs. Phillies expert picks
Stone was widely considered one of the biggest National League All-Star snubs and has been fantastic on the road this season, pitching to the second-lowest road ERA (2.30) by an NL pitcher (min. 40 IP). However, the rookie may still be feeling the effects of throwing the first complete game shutout by a Dodgers rookie since 2013, as he is coming off his shortest outing of the season (three innings) against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last start.
Stone has six-plus strikeouts in five of his previous seven starts but is overvalued in this road start, as his last two starts away from home were against the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies (the teams with the two worst winning percentages in baseball).
The implied probability for this Under to cash is as high as 54.95% with FanDuel's -122 odds, but we can get a better value at BetMGM, which pays $18.70 on a winning $10 wager and a profit of $8.70.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Sanchez has egregious home/road splits this season, pitching to a 1.35 ERA and .213 OBA in nine home starts (he won five of them) versus a 5.54 ERA and .310 OBA with one win in eight road starts. The Phillies southpaw has allowed two earned runs in his last 29 innings at Citizens Bank Park, and three of those four opponents in that span (Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, and Milwaukee Brewers) rank in the top half of the league in wRC+ against southpaws, while all rank in the top-12 of strikeout rate on the road against left-handed pitching.
This would be more than a three-star play if the Dodgers were not an MLB-best 24-9 against left-handed starting pitchers, but they have also won just one-third of their games as underdogs.
The 37.04% implied probability is worth the risk of a $27 payout on a $10 winning wager, especially since the Phillies have a 58.33% chance of winning the game with the implied probability of bet365's -140 moneyline odds.
Best odds: +170 via bet365 | Implied probability: 37.04%
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Hernandez earned every bit of his second-ever All-Star nomination, and he has been quietly great against lefties, with the team's second-highest OPS (.936) in that split (min. 25 ABs). Hernandez also entered Tuesday ranked 11th among all players (min. 10 PAs) with a 1.429 OPS in road games against southpaws since the calendar turned to June.
His .571 ISO in that split gives him a great chance to go over his total bases prop for the fourth time in the last seven games, especially since he had an active six-game hitting streak and had hit safely in eight of the nine games before yesterday's series opener.
Hernandez's odds to cash the Over go as high as -115 at some of our best sports betting apps, so FanDuel has the best value, paying $0.82 more on a winning $10 wager ($19.52 at FanDuel compared to $18.70 at Caesars).
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probabilit y: 51.22%
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Dodgers vs. Phillies odds & game info
- When: Wednesday, July 10
- First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Phillies (-140 odds via bet365)
Dodgers-Phillies player props made Wednesday at 7:36 a.m. ET.
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