The Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (+110) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Dodgers are 106-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 69-85 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 44 away games (+15.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 away games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Julio Urias has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Austin Barnes has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+13.15 Units / 57% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 52 of his last 77 away games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 58 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games at home (+10.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+10.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Dodgers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 67 away games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 93-61 against the Run Line (+27.65 Units / 14.89% ROI).
- 106-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.9 Units / 3.51% ROI
- 65-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -12.32% ROI
- 78-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.25 Units / 3.68% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 69-85 against the Run Line (-22.05 Units / -11.51% ROI).
- 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -3.82% ROI
- 72-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -7.72% ROI
- 78-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.62% ROI
Julio Urías: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Julio Urias has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (755 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 90.7
Julio Urias has walked 8 of 323 left-handed batters (3%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (895/1,230) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Julio Urias has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (139/440) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
43% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 91st Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 11 of 314 right-handed batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 91st Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,295/3,002) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.5 MPH this season (466 balls in play) — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 88.6