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Shohei Ohtani has set the bar so astronomically high that many metrics show he's enduring a tough September as his Los Angeles Dodgers begin a three-game series against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday.
Ohtani enters the game sporting an .820 OPS during September, which is down from his .886 in August and a significant departure from the unicorn's 1.008 during July. But history will only remember his pursuit of becoming the first member of the 50/50 club, and Ohtani has still managed to club three homers while swiping five bags during the month.
He's doing his part to help the juggernaut Dodgers, who sit first in their division and 3.5 games clear of the San Diego Padres, and first in the World Series odds.
Ohtani is a near lock in the MLB MVP odds too, and he's well-positioned for success on Tuesday as part of our Dodgers vs. Marlins prediction.
D odgers vs. Marlins predictions
- Dodgers moneyline (-200 via Betway)
- Shohei Ohtani to steal a base (+200 via Betway)
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Dodgers vs. Marlins?
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET, LoanDepot Park
Best odds: –200 via Betway | Implied probability: 66.67%
The Marlins enter this matchup predictably getting juicy +175 odds from Betway. It's tempting at first to back the underdogs given the pitching matchup, and the Dodgers just generally being uncharacteristically pedestrian during September.
The NL West-leading club is 7-7 during the month, and it's sending Bobby Miller to the mound on Tuesday. Miller has been bombarded recently while allowing a stag gering 13 earned runs over his last two starts, contributing to a ballooning 8.17 ERA overall.
However, the most recent dud outing from Miller came against the Chicago Cubs and their 12th-ranked offense. The Marlins' 29th-ranked unit simply doesn't possess the firepower to win many matchups in which outslugging the opponent is required.
That will likely be the case on Tuesday when Miami sends Darren McCaughan to keep patching a hole in its injury-plagued rotation. McCaughan is often capped at around 75 pitches, and he's given up five earned runs over his last 13 2/3 innings since becoming a starter (5.27 ERA). He's been hit often while coughing up a .309 opponents' batting average.
The Dodgers might be scuffling a little by their standards. But a loaded lineup is still plenty capable of out-hammering an opponent when needed, with Ohtani leading the way.
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Ohtani has gone without a homer in four whole games, which can sometimes feel like months for him. It's been the same length of time without a stolen base, and he's positioned better to end the latter stretch on Tuesday.
The Marlins' pitching staff has given up the 11th-most homers. However, McCaughan is a spot-starter who likely still isn't fully built up.
Consequently, he hasn't lasted longer than five innings during his three previous starts, and didn't make it out of the fifth in two. That means the team's bullpen should feature heavily, and Marlins relievers have allowed the fourth-fewest homers.
But Miami has been susceptible to the stolen base, reg ardless of who's on the mound. The Marlins have given up the fourth-most stolen bases this campaign at 131. They're one of only six teams that have permitted 130-plus swipes.
Combine that weakness with a pitching staff that gives up plenty of base-runners due to its .256 opponents' batting average (26th) and 511 walks (25th), and Ohtani is in an ideal spot to get a chance to run on Tuesday and notch his 49th steal.
Best odds: +200 via Betway | Implied probability: 33.33%
Dodgers vs. Marlins odds & game info
- When: Tuesday, Sept. 17
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: loanDepot park, Miami, Fla.
- How to watch: Spectrum SportsNet LA, Bally Sports Florida
- Favorite: Dodgers (–200 via Betway)
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