Divisional round predictions: Pick against the spread for Bengals-Bills in 2023 NFL playoffs

The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals square off Sunday at 3:00 p.m. from Highmark Stadium with a trip to the AFC title game on the line. Here is a look at the ATS pick for the epic matchup between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

ATS Pick: Bills -5.5

The Bills are -5.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Anytime a line gets this high between two evenly-matched teams, it's usually best to second-guess your gut reaction. While 5.5 points seem like a lot for the defending AFC champions to be getting, the Bills should be able to cover this spread on their way to the title game.

Buffalo's turnover issues are serious and if they are as careless with the ball as they were last week against the Miami Dolphins, they'll be going home early. But we've also seen flashes of what this Bills offense looks like when it's humming. Just 17 minutes into their Wild Card clash against Miami, they had put 17 points on the board. If last week was a “look-ahead” game, this week is anything but, and the Bills should be more intentional about ball control.

The Bengals face an uphill climb as Joe Burrow will be protected by three reserve linemen. Starting LT Jonah Williams (knee), RT La'el Collins (ACL), and RG Alex Kappa (ankle) are all out. Burrow is going to come under fire, especially from a Bills front seven that averaged 2.5 sacks per game in the regular season. Unless Cincinnati can quickly get the ball out to its playmakers on the perimeter, they could be in serious trouble.

While this game has the makings of a classic given the quarterback matchup, the Bills' issues are easier to fix. Buffalo can make a concerted effort to be more careful with the ball. Cincinnati cannot magically heal three of its starting offensive lineman. For those reasons, count on Buffalo covering what looks like a sizable spread on Sunday.

  
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