The Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Sunday, July 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 44-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-45 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 5-6, 5.40 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 7-7, 4.24 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 46 away games (+7.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.05 Units / 43% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+10.85 Units / 67% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.35 Units / 57% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 43-46 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -7.73% ROI).

• 44-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -4.48% ROI
• 46-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.66% ROI
• 41-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -9.32% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-45 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 4.18% ROI).

• 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -2.65% ROI
• 50-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 4.24% ROI
• 42-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -13.09% ROI

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed batters are hitting .367 (55-for-150) against Ryne Nelson this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.

Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting .345 (67-for-194) against Ryne Nelson this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 0 Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has allowed a BABIP of .423 against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .288 — 0 Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has struck out just 14% (65/470) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (175/468) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has struck out 36% (83/228) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 52% of the time (2,889/5,558) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (242/617) against Dylan Cease on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

  
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